Abstract
In Jakarta, climate change has been detected through rising air temperatures, increased intensity of rainfall in the wet season, and sea level rise. The coupling of such changes with local anthropogenic driven modifications in the environmental setting could contribute to an increased probability of flooding, due to increase in both extreme river discharge and sedimentation (as a result of erosion in the watersheds above Jakarta and as indicated by sediment yield in the downstream area). In order to respond to the observed and projected changes in river discharge and sediment yield, and their secondary impacts, adaptation strategies are required. A possible adaptation strategy is through policy making in the field of spatial planning. For example, in Indonesia, presidential regulation number 54 year 2008 (Peraturan Presiden Nomor 54 Tahun 2008—Perpres 54/2008) was issued as a reference for the implementation of water and soil conservation. This paper assesses the impact of climate and land cover change on river discharge and sediment yield, as well as the effects of Perpres 54/2008 on that river discharge and sediment yield. The spatial water balance model Spatial Tools for River Basins and Environmental and Analysis of Management Option was used for the runoff computations, whilst the Spatial Decision Assistance of Watershed Sedimentation model was used to simulate erosion, Sediment Delivery Ratio, and sediment yield. The computation period is from January 1901 to December 2005, at the scale of the following watersheds: Ciujung, Cisadane, Ciliwung, and Citarum. During the twentieth century, computed average discharge in the downstream area (near Jakarta) increased between 2.5 and 35 m3/s/month, and sediment yield increased between 1 × 103 and 42 × 103 tons/year. These changes were caused by changes in both land cover and climate, with the former playing a stronger role. Based on a computation under a theoretical full implementation of the spatial plan proposed by Perpres 54/2008, river discharge would decrease by up to 5 % in the Ciliwung watershed and 26 % in the Cisadane watershed. The implementation of Perpres 54/2008 could also decrease the sediment yield, by up to 61 and 22 % in the Ciliwung and Cisadane watersheds, respectively. These findings show that the implementation of the spatial plan of Perpres 54/2008 could significantly improve watershed response to runoff and erosion. This study may serve as a tool for assessing the reduction in climate change impacts and evaluating the role of spatial planning for adaptation strategies.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abidin HZ, Andreas H, Gumilar I, Gamal M, Susanti P, Fukuda Y, Deguchi T (2010) Land subsidence in Jakarta Basin (Indonesia): characteristics, causes and impacts, IAHS book series groundwater system response to a changing climate. Balkema, Lisse
Aerts J, Droogers P (2004) Climate change in contrasting river basins: adaptation strategies for water, food, and environment. CABI Books, London
Aerts JCJH, Kriek M, Schepel M (1999) STREAM, spatial tools for river basins and environment and analysis of management options: set up and requirements. Phys Chem Earth Part B 24(6):591–595
Aerts J, Bouwer L, Van Geel G, Ward PJ (2005) STREAM manual version 3.0. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam
Aerts JCJH, Renssen H, Ward PJ, De Moel H, Odada E, Bouwer LM, Goosse H (2006) Sensitivity of global river discharges under holocene and future climate conditions, Geophys Res Lett, L19401
Aldrian E, Susanto D (2003) Identification of three dominant rainfall regions within Indonesia and their relationship to sea surface temperature. Int J Climatol 23(12):1435–1452
Aldrian E, Dümenil Gates L, Widodo FH (2007) Seasonal variability of Indonesian rainfall in ECHAM4 simulations and in the reanalyses: the role of ENSO. Theoret Appl Climatol 87(1–4):41–59
Amien I, Rejekiningrum P, Pramudia A, Susanti E (1996) Effects of interannual climate variability and climate change on rice yield in Java, Indonesia. Water Air Soil Pollut 92:29–39
Bouwer LM, Aerts JCJH, van de Coterlet GM, van de Giesen N, Gieske A, Mannaerts C (2004) Evaluating downscaling methods for preparing Global Circulation Model (GCM) data for hydrological impact modelling. In: Aerts J, Droogers P (eds) Climate change in contrasting river basins: adaptation strategies for water, food, and environment. CABI Publishing, Oxford
Caljouw M, Nas PJM, Pratiwo (2005) Flooding in Jakarta: towards a blue city with improved water management. Bijdragen tot de Taal-Land- en Volkenkunde (BKI) 161:454–484
Duhamel P, Vetterli M (1990) Fast Fourier transforms: a tutorial review and a state of the art. Sig Process 19:259–299
Firman T (2009) The continuity and change in mega-urbanization in Indonesia: a survey of Jakarta-Bandung Region (JBR) development. Habitat Int 33:327–339. doi:10.1016/j.habitatint.2008.08.005
Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier, Amsterdam
Hendon HH (2003) Indonesian rainfall variability: impacts of ENSO and local air-sea interaction. J Clim 16:1775–1790
Jakarta BPS (2007). Jakarta dalam Angka 2007. Katalog BPS: 1403.31. Badan Pusat Statistik Propinsi DKI Jakarta, Jakarta, Indonesia
Julian MM, Nishio F, Poerbandono, Ward PJ (2011) Simulation of river discharges in major watersheds of northwestern Java from 1901 to 2006. Int J Tech 2(1):10–19
Kartikasari, R. (2009). Analisis kuadrat terkecil untuk penentuan trend linier perubahan kedudukan muka laut berdasarkan data satelit altimetri TOPEX (1992-2002) dan JASON-1 (2002–2009) (Studi Kasus: Wilayah Perairan Indonesia), Tugas Akhir, Program Studi Teknik Geodesi dan Geomatika, Institut Teknologi Bandung
Lu H, Moran CJ, Prosser IP (2003) Modelling sediment delivery ratio over the murray darling basin, CSIRO land and water. Elsevier, Canberra
Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper, 55, 25
New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I (2002) A high-resolution dataset of surface climate over global land areas. Clim Res 21:1–25
Poerbandono, Basyar A, Harto AB (2006) Spatial modelling of sediment transport over the upper citarum catchment. ITB J Eng Sci 38(1):11–28
Poerbandono, Ward PJ, Julian MM (2009) Set up and calibration of a spatial tool for simulating river discharge of western Java in recent decades: preliminary results and assessments. ITB J Eng Sci 41(1):50–64
Poerbandono, Harto AB, Julian MM (2014) Spatial decision assistance of watershed sedimentation (SDAS): development and application. J Eng Technol Sci. Manuscript accepted for publication
Qian J-H, Robertson AW, Moron V (2010) Interactions among ENSO, the monsoon, and diurnal cycle in rainfall variability over Java, Indonesia. J Atmos Sci 67(11):3509–3524
San CL, Raghavan SV, Shie YL, Sanders R (2012) Development of intensity duration frequency Curve S: incorporating climate change projection. In: Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, Hamburg, Germany
Scalenghe R, Marsan FA (2009) The anthropogenic sealing of soils in urban areas. Landsc Urb Plan 90:1–10
Sivapalan M, Jothityankuun C, Menabde M (2002) Linearity and non-linearity of basin response as a function of scale: discussion of alternative definitions. Water Resour Res 38(2):41–45
Steinberg F (2007) Jakarta: environmental problems and sustainability. Habitat Int 31:354–365
Texier P (2008) Floods in Jakarta: when the extreme reveals daily structural constraints and mismanagement. Disaster Manag Prev 17:358–372
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94
Thornthwaite CW, Mather JR (1957) Instructions and tables for computing potential evapotranspiration and the water balance. Publ Climatol 10(3):183–243
Verburg PH, Veldkamp TA, Bouma J (1999) Land use change under conditions of high population pressure: the case of Java. Glob Environ Change 9:303–312. doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00175-2
Ward PJ, Aerts JCJH, de Moel H, Renssen H (2007) Verification of a coupled climate-hydrological model against holocene palaeohydrological records. Glob Planet Chang 57:283–300
Ward PJ, Renssen H, Aerts JCJH, van Balen RT, Vandenberghe J (2008) Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12:159–175
Ward PJ, Beets W, Bouwer LM, Aerts JCJH, Renssen H (2010) Sensitivity of river discharge to ENSO. Geophys Res Lett 37:L12402. doi:10.1029/2010GL043215
Ward PJ, Marfai MA, Yulianto F, Hizbaron DR, Aerts JCJH (2011a) Coastal inundation and damage exposure estimation: a case study for Jakarta. Nat Hazards 56(3):899–916. doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9599-1
Ward PJ, Renssen H, Aerts JCJH, Verburg PH (2011b) Sensitivity of discharge and flood frequency to 21st century and late Holocene changes in climate and land use (River Meuse, northwest Europe). Clim Chang 106(2):179–202. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9926-2
Ward PJ, Pauw WP, Van Buuren MW, Marfai MA (2013) Governance of flood risk management in a time of climate change: the cases of Jakarta and Rotterdam. Environ Polit 22(3):518–536. doi:10.1080/09644016.2012.683155
Ward PJ, Eisner S, Flörke M, Dettinger MD, Kummu M (2014) Annual flood sensitivities to El Niño Southern Oscillation at the global scale. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:47–66. doi:10.5194/hess-18-47-2014
Wei Y, Santhana-Vannan S-K, Cook RB (2009) Discover, visualize, and deliver geospatial data through OGC standards-based WebGIS system, In: Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Geoinformatics, pp. 1–6, 12–14 Aug. 2009
Whitten T, Soeriaatmadja RE, Afiff SA (1996) The ecology of Java and Bali. Periplus Editions, North Clarendon
Wischmeier WH, Smith DD (1978) Predicting rainfall erosion losses—a guide to conservation planning, US Department Agricultural Handbook No. 537
Acknowledgments
We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. This research was funded by a SPIN grant (09-MP-10) from the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW), and project HSINT02a of the Dutch research programme Knowledge for Climate and Delta Alliance. Philip J. Ward was also funded by a VENI grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Poerbandono, Julian, M.M. & Ward, P.J. Assessment of the effects of climate and land cover changes on river discharge and sediment yield, and an adaptive spatial planning in the Jakarta region. Nat Hazards 73, 507–530 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1083-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1083-x