Abstract
Summer monsoon rainfall was simulated by a global 20 km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), focusing on the changes in the summer monsoon rainfall of Bangladesh. Calibration and validation of AGCM were performed over Bangladesh for generating summer monsoon rainfall scenarios. The model-produced summer monsoon rainfall was calibrated with a ground-based observational data in Bangladesh during the period 1979–2003. The TRMM 3B43 V6 data are also used for understanding the model performance. The AGCM output obtained through validation process made it confident to be used for near future and future summer monsoon rainfall projection in Bangladesh. In the present-day (1979–2003) climate simulations, the high-resolution AGCM produces the summer monsoon rainfall better as a spatial distribution over SAARC region in comparison with TRMM but magnitude may be different. Summer monsoon rainfall projection for Bangladesh was experimentally obtained for near future and future during the period 2015–2034 and 2075–2099, respectively. This work reveals that summer monsoon rainfall simulated by a high-resolution AGCM is not directly applicable to application purpose. However, acceptable performance was obtained in estimating summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh after calibration and validation. This study predicts that in near future, summer monsoon rainfall on an average may decrease about −0.5 % during the period 2015–2034 and future summer monsoon rainfall may increase about 0.4 % during the period 2075–2099.
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Acknowledgments
The first author is grateful to JICA Bangladesh for selecting for the training course on “Capacity Development for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia-Climate Change Analysis” JFY 2008, project number: 0884131. The authors are also grateful to the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan, for providing data of high-resolution (20 km) AGCM for the study. The Bangladesh Meteorological department (BMD) is acknowledged for providing observational data. The TRMM rainfall data were obtained for verification of the results from the NASA’s TRMM web site.
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Rahman, M.M., Rafiuddin, M., Alam, M.M. et al. Summer monsoon rainfall scenario over Bangladesh using a high-resolution AGCM. Nat Hazards 69, 793–807 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0734-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0734-7