Natural Hazards

, Volume 64, Issue 2, pp 1707–1716

Hazard management and risk design by optimal statistical analysis

  • Cheng-Wu Chen
  • Kevin Fong-Rey Liu
  • Chun-Pin Tseng
  • Wen-Ko Hsu
  • Wei-Ling Chiang
Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0329-8

Cite this article as:
Chen, C., Liu, K.F., Tseng, C. et al. Nat Hazards (2012) 64: 1707. doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0329-8


Elicitation methods are used in decision making with respect to risk hazards to allow a researcher to infer the subjective utilities of outcomes from the observed preferences of an individual. A questionnaire method is presented, in this study, which takes into account the inevitable distortion of preferences by random errors and minimizes the effect of such errors. Under mild assumptions, the method for eliciting the utilities of many outcomes is a three-stage procedure. First, the questionnaire is utilized to elicit responses from which a subjective score is defined. Second, individual risk factors are discussed. Finally, the regression model presents individual risk preferences given the overall organizational risk culture, risk management policy, risk identification, and risk analysis. This paper addresses how company managers face risk and their tolerance of risk with respect to risk management.


Risk hazard assessmentComputer aidedFinancial insurance

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Cheng-Wu Chen
    • 1
  • Kevin Fong-Rey Liu
    • 2
  • Chun-Pin Tseng
    • 3
  • Wen-Ko Hsu
    • 4
  • Wei-Ling Chiang
    • 5
  1. 1.Institute of Maritime Information and TechnologyNational Kaohsiung Marine UniversityKaohsiungTaiwan
  2. 2.Department of SafetyHealth and Environmental Engineering, Ming Chi University of TechnologyNew Taipei CityTaiwan, ROC
  3. 3.Chung Shan Institute of Science and TechnologyArmaments BureauTaoyuanTaiwan
  4. 4.Research Center for Hazard Mitigation and PreventionNational Central University TaoyuanTaiwan
  5. 5.Department of Civil EngineeringNational Central UniversityTaoyuanTaiwan, ROC