A GISbased logistic regression model in rockfall susceptibility mapping along a mountainous road: Salavat Abad case study, Kurdistan, Iran
 Ataollah Shirzadi,
 Lee Saro,
 Oh Hyun Joo,
 Kamran Chapi
 … show all 4 hide
Abstract
This study describes the application of logistic regression to rockfall susceptibility mapping along 11 km of a mountainous road on the Salavat Abad saddle, in southwest Kurdistan, Iran. To determine the factors influencing rockfalls, data layers of slope degree, slope aspect, slope curvature, elevation, distance to road, distance to fault, lithology, and land use were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. The results are shown as rockfall susceptibility maps. A spatial database, which included 68 sites (34 rockfall point cells with value of 1 and 34 no rockfall point cells with value of 0) was developed and analyzed using a Geographic Information System, GIS. The results are shown as four classes of rockfall susceptibility. In this study, distance to fault, lithology, slope curvature, slope degree, and distance to road were found to be the most important factors affecting rockfall. It was concluded that about 76 % of the study area can be classified as having moderate and high susceptibility classes. Rockfall point cells were used to verify results of the rockfall susceptibility map using success curve rate and the area under the curve. The verification results showed that the area under the curve for rockfall susceptibility map is 77.57 %. The results from this study demonstrated that the use of a logistic regression model within a GIS framework is useful and suitable for rockfall susceptibility mapping. The rockfall susceptibility map can be used to reduce susceptibility associated with rockfall.
 Akgun, A, Bulut, F (2007) GISbased landslide susceptibility for ArsinYomra (Trabzon, North Turkey) region. Environ Geol 51: pp. 13771387
 Akgun, A, Dag, S, Bulut, F (2008) Landslide susceptibility mapping for a landslide prone area (Findikli, NE of Turkey) by likelihoodfrequency ratio and weighted linear combination models. Environ Geol 54: pp. 11271143
 Ayalew, L, Yamagishi, H (2004) The application of GISbased logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping in the KakudYahiko Mountains, Central Japan. Geomorphology 65: pp. 1531 CrossRef
 Ayalew L, Yamagishi H, Marui H, Kanno T (2005) Landslides in Sado Island of Japan: Part II. GISbased susceptibility mapping with comparisons of results from two methods and verifications. Eng Geol 81:432–445
 Ayenew, T, Barbieri, G (2005) Inventory of rockfall and susceptibility mapping in the Dessie area, northern Ethiopia. Eng Geol 77: pp. 115 CrossRef
 Aykut, A, Necdet, T (2011) Mapping erosion susceptibility by a multivariate statistical method: a case study from the Ayvalık region, NW Turkey. Comput Geosci 37: pp. 15151524 CrossRef
 Azzoni, A, Barbera, GL, Zaninetti, A (1995) Analysis and prediction of rockfalls using a mathematical model. J Rock Mech Min Sci Geomech Abst 32: pp. 709724 CrossRef
 Baeza, C, Corominas, J (2001) Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility by means of multivariate statistical techniques. Earth Surf Proc Land 26: pp. 12511263 CrossRef
 Barredol, JI, Benavidesz, A, Herhl, J, Westen, CJ (2000) Comparing heuristic landslide susceptibility assessment techniques using GIS in the Tirajana basin, Gran Canaria Island, Spain. J Appl Earth Observ Geoinf 2: pp. 923 CrossRef
 Can, T, Nefeslioglu, HA, Gokceoglu, C, Sonmez, H, Duman, Y (2005) Susceptibility assessments of shallow earth flows triggered by heavy rainfall at three catchments by logistic regression analysis. Geomorphology 82: pp. 250271 CrossRef
 Carrara, A, Cardinali, M, Guzzetti, F (1992) Uncertainty in assessing landslide susceptibility and risk. J Interdenominat Theol Center (ITC) 2: pp. 172183
 Carrara, A, Cardinali, M, Guzzetti, F, Reichenbach, P GIS technology in mapping landslide susceptibility. In: Carrara, A, Guzzetti, F eds. (1995) Geographical information systems in assessing natural hazards. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp. 135175
 Chau, KT, Chan, JE (2005) Regional bias of landslide data in generating susceptibility maps using logistic regression for Hong Kong Island. J Rock Mech Rock Eng 2: pp. 280290
 Chau, KT, Wong, RHC, Lin, J, Lee, CF (2003) Rockfall susceptibility analysis for Hong Kong based on Rockfall Inventory. J Rock Mech Rock Eng 36: pp. 383408 CrossRef
 Chau, KT, Tang, YF, Wong, RHC (2004) GISBased Rockfall susceptibility map for Hong Kong. J Rock Mech Min Sci 41: pp. 530542 CrossRef
 Chauchan, Sh, Sharma, M, Arora, MK, Gupta, NK (2010) Landslide susceptibility zonation through rating derived from artificial neural network. J Appl Erath Observ Geoinf 12: pp. 340350 CrossRef
 Choi, J, Oh, HJ, Lee, HJ, Lee, Ch, Lee, S (2012) Combining landslide susceptibility maps obtained from frequency ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models using ASTER images and GIS. Eng Geol 124: pp. 1223 CrossRef
 Chung, CF, Fabbri, AG (2003) Validation of spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. Nat Hazards 30: pp. 451472 CrossRef
 Chung, CF, Fabbri, AG, Westen, CJ Multivariate regression analysis for landslide susceptibility zonation. In: Carrara, A, Guzzetti, F eds. (1995) Geographical information systems in assessing natural hazards. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp. 107133
 Corominas, J, Santacana, N (2003) Stability analysis of the Vallcebre translational slide Eastern Pyrenees (Spain) by means of a GIS. Nat Hazard 30: pp. 473485 CrossRef
 Cox, DR, Snell, EJ (1989) Analysis of binary data. Chapman and Hall, London
 Dai, FC, Lee, CF (2002) Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Geomorphology 42: pp. 213228 CrossRef
 Evans SG, Hungr O (1993) The assessment of rockfall hazard at the base of talus slopes. Can Geotech J 30:620–636
 Gorseveski PV, Gessler P, Foltz RB (2000) Spatial prediction of Landslide susceptibility using logistic regression and GIS. In: 4th International conference on integrating GIS and environmental modeling, Alberta, 9 pp
 Greco, R, SorrisoValvo, M, Catalano, E (2007) Logistic regression analysis in the evaluation of mass movement’s susceptibility case study: Calabria, Italy. Eng Geol 89: pp. 4766 CrossRef
 Guzzetti, F, Carrara, A, Cardinali, M, Reichenbach, P (1999) Rockfall susceptibility evaluation: a review of current techniques and their application in a multiscale study, Central Italy. Geomorphology 31: pp. 181216 CrossRef
 Hegg C, Kienholz H (1995) Determining paths of gravitydriven slope processes—the ‘Vector Tree Model’. In: Carrara A, Guzetti F (eds) Geographic information systems in assessing natural hazards. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 79–92
 Hoek, E, Bray, W (1981) Rock slope engineering (3rd edn) Institution of Mining and Metallurgy, London. 527 pp. International Society for Rocks Mechanics. 1978. Suggested methods for the quantitative description of discontinuities in rock masses. J Rock Mech Min 15: pp. 319368
 Hosmer, DW, Lemeshow, S (2000) Applied logistic regression. Wiley, New York CrossRef
 Hungr O, Evans SG (1988) Engineering evaluation of fragmental rockfall hazards. Proceedings of the 5th international symposium on landslides in Lausanne, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp 685–690
 Jadda, M, Shafri, HZM, Mansor, ShB, Sharifikia, M, Pirasteh, S (2009) Landslide susceptibility evaluation and factor effect analysis using probabilisticfrequency ratio model. Eur J Sci Res 33: pp. 654668
 Kelarestaghi, A, Ahmadi, H (2009) Landslide susceptibility analysis with a bivariate approach and GIS in northern Iran. Arab J Geosci 2: pp. 95101 CrossRef
 Keylock C, Domaas U (1999) Evaluation of topographic models of rockfall travel distance for use in hazard applications. Artic Antarctic Alp Res 31(3):312–320
 Kirkby MJ, Statham I (1975) Surface stone movement and scree formation. J Geol 83:349–362
 Kobayashi, Y, Harp, EL, Kagawa, T (1990) Simulation of rockfalls triggered by earthquakes. J Rock Mech Rock Eng 23: pp. 120 CrossRef
 Lamelas, MT, Marinoni, O, Hoppe, A, Riva, J (2008) Doline probability map using logistic regression and GIS technology in the central Ebro Basin (Spain). Environ Geol 54: pp. 963977
 Lee, S, Min, K (2001) Statistical analysis of Landslide susceptibility at Yongin, Korea. Environ Geol 40: pp. 10951113
 Lee, S, Pradhan, B (2006) Probabilistic landslide susceptibility s and risk mapping on Penang Island, Malaysia. J Earth Syst Sci 115: pp. 661672 CrossRef
 Lee, S, Sambath, T (2006) Landslide susceptibility mapping in the Damrei Romel area, Cambodia using frequency ratio and logistic regression models. Environ Geol 50: pp. 847855
 Menard SW (2002) Applied logistic regression analysis, 2nd edn. Sage, Thousand Oaks, 111 pp. Network model. Environmental Earth Sciences. doi:10.1007/s1266500902458 (online first)
 Nagelkerk, E (1991) A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination. Biomelrika 78: pp. 691692 CrossRef
 Nandi, A, Shakoor, A (2009) A GISbased landslide susceptibility evaluation using bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses. Eng Geol 110: pp. 1120 CrossRef
 Nefeslioglu, HA, Gokceoglu, C, Sonmez, H (2008) An assessment on the use of logistic regression and artificial neural networks with different sampling strategies for the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps. Eng Geol 97: pp. 171191 CrossRef
 Oh, HJ, Lee, S (2011) Landslide susceptibility mapping on Panaon Island, Philippines using a geographic information system. Environ Earth Sci 62: pp. 935951 CrossRef
 Oh, HJ, Pradhan, B (2011) Application of a neurofuzzy model to landslidesusceptibility mapping for shallow landslides in a tropical hilly area. Comput Geosci 37: pp. 12641276 CrossRef
 Oh, HJ, Lee, S, Chotikasathien, W, Kim, CH, Kwon, JH (2009) Predictive landslide susceptibility mapping using spatial information in the Pechabun area of Thailand. Environ Geol 57: pp. 641651
 Pfeiffer TJ, BowenTD (1989) Computer simulation of rockfalls. Bull Assoc Eng Geol 26(1):135–146
 Pradhan, B (2010) Remote sensing and GISbased landslide susceptibility analysis and crossvalidation using multivariate logistic regression model on three test areas in Malaysia. Adv Space Res 45: pp. 12441256 CrossRef
 Pradhan B, Lee S (2009) Landslide risk analysis using artificial neural network model focusing on different training sites. Int J Phys Sci 3(11):1–15
 Pradhan, B, Lee, S (2010) Landslide susceptibility assessment and factor effect: backpropagation artificial neural networks and their comparison with frequency ratio and bivariate logistic regression modeling. Environ Model Softw 25: pp. 747759 CrossRef
 Reger, JP (1979) Discriminate analysis as a possible tool in landslide investigations. Earth Surf Proc Land 4: pp. 267273 CrossRef
 Sassa, K, Wang, G, Fukuoka, H, Wang, F, Ochiai, T, Sugiyama, M, Sekiguchi, T (2004) Landslide risk evaluation and susceptibility zoning for rapid and longtravel rockfall in urban development areas. Landslides 1: pp. 221235 CrossRef
 Selby, MJ (1982) Hill slope Material and process. Oxford university press, Oxford
 Statham I (1976) A scree slope rockfall model. Earth Surf Process 1:43–62
 Su, F, Cui, P (2010) Susceptibility assessment of landslides caused by the wenchuan earthquake using a logistic regression model. J Mt Sci 7: pp. 234245 CrossRef
 Suzen, ML, Doyuran, V (2004) HA comparison of the GIS based landslide susceptibility assessment methods: multivariate versus bivariate. Environ Geol 45: pp. 665679
 Suzen, ML, Doyuran, V (2004) Data driven bivariate landslide susceptibility assessment using geographical information systems: a method and application to Asarsuyu catchment, Turkey. Eng Geol 71: pp. 303352 CrossRef
 Wu, SS (1985) Rock fall evaluation by computer simulation. Transp Res Rec 1031: pp. 15
 Yamagishi, H (2000) Recent rockfall in western Hokkaido, Japan. Pure Appl Geophys 157: pp. 11151134 CrossRef
 Title
 A GISbased logistic regression model in rockfall susceptibility mapping along a mountainous road: Salavat Abad case study, Kurdistan, Iran
 Open Access
 Available under Open Access This content is freely available online to anyone, anywhere at any time.
 Journal

Natural Hazards
Volume 64, Issue 2 , pp 16391656
 Cover Date
 20121101
 DOI
 10.1007/s1106901203213
 Print ISSN
 0921030X
 Online ISSN
 15730840
 Publisher
 Springer Netherlands
 Additional Links
 Topics
 Keywords

 Rockfall
 Susceptibility map
 Logistic regression
 Salavat Abad
 Kurdistan
 Iran
 Industry Sectors
 Authors

 Ataollah Shirzadi ^{(1)}
 Lee Saro ^{(2)}
 Oh Hyun Joo ^{(2)}
 Kamran Chapi ^{(1)}
 Author Affiliations

 1. University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Islamic Republic of Iran
 2. Geoscience Information Center, Korea Institute of Geoscience & Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 92 GwahangNo, YuseongGu, Daejeon, 305350, Korea