, Volume 65, Issue 1, pp 977-980
Date: 06 Sep 2012

Comment to Shepard, C.C., Agostini, V.N., Gilmer, B., Allen, T., Stone, J., Brooks, W., Beck, M.W.: Assessing future risk: quantifying the effects of sea level rise on storm surge risk for the southern shores of Long Island

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The paper by Shepard et al. (2012) considers the effects that the sea level forecasts based on climate model simulations, but not on tide gauges measurements, may have to increase the impacts of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. The sea level rise of 0.5 m by 2,080 regarded as “modest and probable” by the authors is actually 2.5 times the most likely number that could be inferred from the local sea level rises of tide gauges and the absence of local and global positive accelerations by the local and global tide gauges and by the satellite radar altimeters.

Shepard et al. (2012) consider in their paper the sea level forecast of climate model simulations to study the increased effects of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. The authors comment negatively how many coastal hazard mitigation plans do not consider these sea level rises when assessing storm surge risk and propose a GIS-based approach to quantify potential changes in storm surge risk due to th ...

This comment refers to the article available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-0046-8.