Natural Hazards

, Volume 51, Issue 1, pp 115–137

A modelling approach for estimating the frequency of sea level extremes and the impact of climate change in southeast Australia

  • K. L. McInnes
  • I. Macadam
  • G. D. Hubbert
  • J. G. O’Grady
Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9383-2

Cite this article as:
McInnes, K.L., Macadam, I., Hubbert, G.D. et al. Nat Hazards (2009) 51: 115. doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9383-2

Abstract

An efficient approach for evaluating storm tide return levels along the southeastern coastline of Australia under present and future climate conditions is described. Storm surge height probabilities for the present climate are estimated using hydrodynamic model simulations of surges identified in recent tide gauge records. Tides are then accounted for using a joint probability method. Storm tide height return levels obtained in this way are similar to those obtained from the direct analysis of tide gauge records. The impact of climate change on extreme sea levels is explored by adding a variety of estimates of mean sea level rise and by forcing the model with modified wind data. It is shown that climate change has the potential to reduce average recurrence intervals of present climate 1 in 100 year storm tide levels along much of the northern Bass Strait coast to between 1 and 2 years by the year 2070.

Keywords

Extreme value analysis Tides Storm surge Sea level rise Hydrodynamic model Coastal vulnerability Climate change 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • K. L. McInnes
    • 1
  • I. Macadam
    • 1
  • G. D. Hubbert
    • 2
  • J. G. O’Grady
    • 1
  1. 1.The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, a partnership between CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of MeteorologyAspendale, VICAustralia
  2. 2.Global Environmental Modelling SystemsWarrandyte, VICAustralia

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