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Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin, China

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Abstract

Rice (Oryza) is a staple food in China, and rice yield is inherently sensitive to climate change. It is of great regional and global importance to understand how and to what degree climate change will impact rice yields and to determine the adaptation options effectiveness for mitigating possible adverse impacts or for taking advantage of beneficial changes. The objectives of this study are to assess the climate change impact, the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect, and the adaptation strategy effectiveness on rice yields during future periods (2011–2099) under the newly released Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario in the Sichuan Basin, one of the most important rice production areas of China. For this purpose, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model was applied to conduct simulation, based on high-quality meteorological, soil and agricultural experimental data. The modeling results indicated a continuing rice reduction in the future periods. Compared to that without incorporating of increased CO2 concentration, a CO2 fertilization effect could mitigate but still not totally offset the negative climate change impacts on rice yields. Three adaptive measures, including advancing planting dates, switching to current high temperature tolerant varieties, and breeding new varieties, could effectively offset the negative climate change impacts with various degrees. Our results will not only contribute to inform regional future agricultural adaptation decisions in the Sichuan Basin but also gain insight into the mechanism of regional rice yield response to global climate change and the effectiveness of widely practiced global thereby assisting with appropriate adaptive strategies.

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Acknowledgments

This research was jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant No. 2012CB955403), CAS Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05130701) and Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41172154).

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  1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Che-Chen Xu, Wen-Xiang Wu, Quan-Sheng Ge, Yang Zhou, Yu-Mei Lin & Ya-Mei Li

  2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Che-Chen Xu

  3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Che-Chen Xu, Wen-Xiang Wu, Quan-Sheng Ge, Yang Zhou, Yu-Mei Lin & Ya-Mei Li

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Correspondence to Wen-Xiang Wu.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 7 The soil characteristics for the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES)-Rice model inputs in the Sichuan Basin
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Xu, CC., Wu, WX., Ge, QS. et al. Simulating climate change impacts and potential adaptations on rice yields in the Sichuan Basin, China. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 22, 565–594 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-015-9688-2

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