Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector

  • Bruce A. McCarl
  • Mark Musumba
  • Joel B. Smith
  • Paul Kirshen
  • Russell Jones
  • Akram El-Ganzori
  • Mohamed A. Ali
  • Mossad Kotb
  • Ibrahim El-Shinnawy
  • Mona El-Agizy
  • Mohamed Bayoumi
  • Riina Hynninen
Original Article

DOI: 10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9

Cite this article as:
McCarl, B.A., Musumba, M., Smith, J.B. et al. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2015) 20: 1097. doi:10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9

Abstract

Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies.

Keywords

Climate change Water use Population growth Adaptation 

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bruce A. McCarl
    • 1
  • Mark Musumba
    • 2
  • Joel B. Smith
    • 3
  • Paul Kirshen
    • 4
  • Russell Jones
    • 3
  • Akram El-Ganzori
    • 5
  • Mohamed A. Ali
    • 6
  • Mossad Kotb
    • 6
  • Ibrahim El-Shinnawy
    • 7
  • Mona El-Agizy
    • 8
  • Mohamed Bayoumi
    • 9
  • Riina Hynninen
    • 9
  1. 1.Department of Agricultural EconomicsTexas A&M UniversityCollege StationUSA
  2. 2.Agriculture and Food Security Center, The Earth InstituteColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA
  3. 3.Stratus Consulting Inc.BoulderUSA
  4. 4.University of New HampshireDurhamUSA
  5. 5.National Water Research CenterCairoEgypt
  6. 6.Agro-Climate Laboratory, Ministry of AgricultureCairoEgypt
  7. 7.Coastal Research InstituteMinistry of Water Resources and IrrigationCairoEgypt
  8. 8.Climate Change Risk Management Programme in Egypt and UNDPCairoEgypt
  9. 9.United Nations Development ProgrammeCairoEgypt