Emissions and Atmospheric CO2 Stabilization: Long-Term Limits and Paths
- Cite this article as:
- Kheshgi, H.S., Smith, S.J. & Edmonds, J.A. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change (2005) 10: 213. doi:10.1007/s11027-005-3783-8
The objective of stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is often envisioned as a monotonic approach to higher constant concentrations. For CO2 to approach a constant concentration over a finite time, CO2 emissions must peak and then gradually approach zero over 1,000+ years, regardless of the concentration level. While this intellectual architecture has proved useful, we suggest consideration of a broader range of scenarios, including ones in which net emissions decline to zero over a finite period of time resulting in a maximum CO2 concentration followed by a long-term decline to a lower level. Carbon cycle model results illustrate these scenarios.