Mortality, longevity and experiments with the Lee–Carter model
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- Haberman, S. & Renshaw, A. Lifetime Data Anal (2008) 14: 286. doi:10.1007/s10985-008-9084-2
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The paper reviews the Lee–Carter modelling framework, illustrated with an application, and then extends the framework through the development of a wider class of generalised, parametric, non-linear models. The choice of error distribution is also generalised. These extensions permit the modelling and extrapolation of age-specific cohort effects as well as the more familiar age-specific period effects: the age-period-cohort version of the model is discussed with a worked example. The paper also provides a comparative study of simulation strategies for assessing risk in mortality rate predictions and the associated forecast estimates of life expectancy and annuity values in both period and cohort perspectives.