Abstract
The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 M w = 6.0 mainshock at Parkfield, California, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault. We use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this new series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield mainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are frequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come from physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (the Brownian Passage Time Model and the Minimalist Model). The differences resulting from these five renewal models are emphasized.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bakun, W.H., 1988, History of significant earthquakes in the Parkfield area Earthq. Volcano. 20, 45–51.
Bakun, W.H., and Lindh, A.G., 1985, The Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction experiment Science 229, 619–624.
Davis, P.M., Jackson, D.D. and Kagan, Y.Y., 1989, The longer it has been since the last earthquake, the longer the expected time till the next? Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 79, 1439–1456.
Ellsworth, W.L., Matthews, M.V., Nadeau, R.M., Nishenko, S.P., Reasenberg, P.A. and Simpson, R.W., 1999 A physically-based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities, United States Geological Survey Open-File Report 99–552, 22 p.
Gómez, J.B. and Pacheco, A.F., 2004, The Minimalist Model of characteristic earthquakes as a useful tool for description of the recurrence of large earthquakes Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, 1960–1967.
González, Á., Gómez, J.B. and Pacheco, A.F., 2005, The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault.Am. J. Phys. 73, 946-952.
Kagan, Y.Y. and Knopoff, L., 1987, Random stress and earthquake statistics: time dependence Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc. 88, 723–731.
Matthews, M.V., Ellsworth, W.L. and Reasenberg, P.A., 2002, A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 92, 2233–2250.
Michael, A.J., 2005, Viscoelasticity, postseismic slip, fault interactions, and the recurrence of large earthquakes Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., in press 95, 1594-1603.
Michael, A.J. and Jones, L.M., 1998, Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 88, 117–130.
Sornette, D. and Knopoff, L., 1997. The paradox of the expected time until the next earthquake.Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 87, 789–798.
Utsu, T., 1984, Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo 59, 53–66.
Vázquez-Prada, M., González, Á., Gómez, J.B. and Pacheco, A.F., 2002, A minimalist model of characteristic earthquakes.Nonlinear. Process. Geophys. 9, 513–519.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003 Earthquake Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2002-2031, United States Geological Survey Open-File Report 03–214, 234 p.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
González, Á., Gómez, J.B. & Pacheco, A.F. Updating seismic hazard at Parkfield. J Seismol 10, 131–135 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-005-9005-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-005-9005-8