Demographic change and the supply of potential family supporters in Britain, Finland and France in the period 1911–2050/Changements démographiques et disponibilité des soutiens familiaux en Grande-Bretagne, en Finlande et en France entre 1911 et 2050

Michael Murphy; Pekka Martikainen; Sophie Pennec

doi:10.1007/s10680-006-9003-8

European Journal of Population / Revue européenne de Démographie

September 2006, Volume 22, Issue 3, pp 219–240

Demographic change and the supply of potential family supporters in Britain, Finland and France in the period 1911–2050/Changements démographiques et disponibilité des soutiens familiaux en Grande-Bretagne, en Finlande et en France entre 1911 et 2050

Authors
Authors and affiliations

Michael MurphyEmail author
Pekka Martikainen
Sophie Pennec

Original Paper

First Online:: 17 November 2006

DOI: 10.1007/s10680-006-9003-8

Cite this article as:: Murphy, M., Martikainen, P. & Pennec, S. Eur J Population (2006) 22: 219. doi:10.1007/s10680-006-9003-8

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Abstract

We consider the contribution of changes in mortality and fertility to availability of living mothers and living children among older people in Britain, Finland and France. The proportion of people aged around 60 with a mother alive will more than double between those born in 1911 and 1970 before starting to decline slightly. Conversely, a higher proportion of elderly people are likely to have a surviving child than for any generation ever born in all three countries in the next quarter century or so, with about 85% of 80-year-old women having at least one surviving child, and about two-thirds having two or more.

Keywords

AgeingPopulation projectionsDeveloped countriesKinship

Résumé

Cet article analyse la contribution des changements de mortalité et de fécondité sur la probabilité, pour les personnes âgées en Grande Bretagne, en Finlande et en France, d’avoir encore sa mère vivante ou d’avoir des enfants vivants. La proportion de personnes âgées d’environ 60 ans avec leur mère toujours en vie devrait doubler entre les cohortes nées en 1911 et celles nées en 1970, puis baisser légèrement par la suite. De même dans les trois pays, la proportion de personnes âgées ayant un enfant vivant devrait être plus élevée pour les cohortes à naître au cours du prochain quart de siècle qu’elle ne l’a jamais été dans le passé, avec 85 pour cent des femmes de 80 ans ayant au moins un enfant survivant, et deux tiers ayant deux enfants ou plus.

Mots-clés

VieillissementProjections de populationPays développésParenté

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Authors and Affiliations

Michael Murphy
- 1
Email author
Pekka Martikainen
- 2
Sophie Pennec
- 3

1.Department of Social PolicyLondon School of Economics and Political ScienceLondonUnited Kingdom
2.Population Research Unit, Department of SociologyUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
3.Institut national d’études démographiques (INED)ParisFrance

Demographic change and the supply of potential family supporters in Britain, Finland and France in the period 1911–2050/Changements démographiques et disponibilité des soutiens familiaux en Grande-Bretagne, en Finlande et en France entre 1911 et 2050

Abstract

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