Abstract
The paper uses the Hungarian Generations and Gender Survey ‘Turning Points in the Life-course’ (HGGS) to describe recent changes in union formation, onset of childbearing, leaving home and cohabitation. By estimating survivor functions and semi-parametric hazard regression models with time-varying covariates for the timing of first union and first birth, we find a long delay among the youngest cohorts, but also remarkably strong period effects. Reduced employment, increased educational enrolment, and a higher level of uncertainty are important drivers behind these changes. Moreover, our evidence suggests that certain policy changes during the transition have exacerbated this effect, having an asymmetric impact on family formation – depending on the social status of individuals.
Résumé
Cet article s’appuie sur l’enquête hongroise Générations et Genre «Points d’inflexion dans les biographies» pour décrire les changements récents dans la formation des unions, dans le début de la procréation, le départ du domicile parental et la cohabitation. En estimant des fonctions de survie et des modèles de Cox avec des caractéristiques dépendantes de la durée pour le calendrier de la première union et de la première naissance, nous mettons en évidence un retard sensible parmi les générations les plus jeunes mais aussi des effets de périodes très manifestes. Une réduction de l’emploi, un investissement accru dans l’éducation et un niveau plus élevé d’incertitude sont des ressorts importants de ces changements. Par ailleurs, nos analyses suggèrent que les changements de politiques publiques au cours de la transition ont exacerbé ces effets, qui sont toutefois plus ou moins marqués selon la position sociale des individus.
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Aassve, A., Billari, F. C. & Spéder, Z. (2006). Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary. European Journal of Population, xx–xx
Aassve, A., Billari, F. C. et Spéder, Zs., 2006. Société en transition, changements de politiques et formation de la famille: le cas de la Hongrie. Revue europé enne de démographie 22: 127–152.
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Aassve, A., Billari, F.C. & Spéder, Z. Societal Transition, Policy Changes and Family Formation: Evidence from Hungary. Eur J Population 22, 127–152 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-005-7434-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-005-7434-2