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Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling

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Abstract

In the years 2004 and 2005, we collected samples of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macroinvertebrates in an artificial small pond in Budapest (Hungary). We set up a simulation model predicting the abundances of the cyclopoids, Eudiaptomus zachariasi, and Ischnura pumilio by considering only temperature and the abundance of population of the previous day. Phytoplankton abundance was simulated by considering not only temperature but the abundances of the three mentioned groups. When we ran the model with the data series of internationally accepted climate change scenarios, the different outcomes were discussed. Comparative assessment of the alternative climate change scenarios was also carried out with statistical methods.

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Acknowledgments

This investigation was supported by the projects NKFP 4/037/2001 and the OTKA T042583. The present paper is a contribution to the CLIVARA and PRUDENCE projects. Meteorological data were provided by the Hungarian Meteorological Office. Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, Eötvös Loránd University, and Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Corvinus University of Budapest, supported this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány P. sétány 1/c, 1117, Budapest, Hungary

    Cs. Vadadi-Fülöp, D. Türei & Cs. Verasztó

  2. Department of Mathematics and Informatics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Villányi út 29–33, 1118, Budapest, Hungary

    Cs. Sipkay & L. Hufnagel

  3. College of Technology of Budapest, Népszínház út 8, 1081, Budapest, Hungary

    Á. Drégelyi-Kiss

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  1. Cs. Vadadi-Fülöp
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  2. D. Türei
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  6. L. Hufnagel
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Correspondence to Cs. Vadadi-Fülöp.

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Vadadi-Fülöp, C., Türei, D., Sipkay, C. et al. Comparative Assessment of Climate Change Scenarios Based on Aquatic Food Web Modeling. Environ Model Assess 14, 563–576 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-008-9158-2

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