Trade relations between an enlarged EU and the Russian Federation, and its effects in Belarus Article First Online: 13 November 2008 DOI:
Cite this article as: Tochitskaya, I. & Vinhas de Souza, L. Econ Change Restruct (2009) 42: 1. doi:10.1007/s10644-008-9064-2 Abstract
This paper aims to study the effects of a possible Russia-European Union (EU) free-trade agreement (FTA), in Russia itself and in the other Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. The paper also presents estimations of the effects of external shocks on the CIS country that has closest trade relations with Russia, the Republic of Belarus. The paper is organized as follows. Section 1 starts with a brief description of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model used herein. The current status of trade flows between the EU, Russia, and the CIS are presented in Sect. 2. In Sect. 3, the effects of a EU-Russia FTA are simulated on a benchmark of an enlarged EU and a Russia that is a World Trade Organization (WTO) member. Section 4 describes the trade relations between Russia and Belarus and the effects of a gas price shock. The work concludes that a FTA with the EU would yield positive results for Russia and Belarus.
Keywords CGE Trade Transition economies
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