On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change

Richard S. J. Tol

doi:10.1007/s10640-012-9549-3

Environmental and Resource Economics

September 2012, Volume 53, Issue 1, pp 97–116

On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change

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Richard S. J. TolEmail author

Open AccessArticle

First Online:: 26 February 2012

Accepted:: 12 February 2012

DOI: 10.1007/s10640-012-9549-3

Cite this article as:: Tol, R.S.J. Environ Resource Econ (2012) 53: 97. doi:10.1007/s10640-012-9549-3

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Abstract

This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.

Keywords

Climate changeEconomic impactMeta-analysisSocial cost of carbon

JEL Classification

Q54

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Authors and Affiliations

Richard S. J. Tol
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
Email author

1.Department of EconomicsUniversity of SussexBrightonUK
2.Institute for Environmental StudiesVrije UniversiteitAmsterdamThe Netherlands
3.Department of Spatial EconomicsVrije UniversiteitAmsterdamThe Netherlands
4.Mantell BuildingUniversity of SussexFalmerUK

On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change

Abstract

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