Environmental and Resource Economics

, Volume 43, Issue 3, pp 313–332

A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa


    • Basque Center for Climate Change
    • Research consultant to the World Bank; Research AssociateYale University
  • Robert Mendelsohn
    • School of Forestry and Environmental StudiesYale University
  • Ariel Dinar
    • Department of Environmental Sciences and Water Science and Policy CenterUniversity of California
    • Development Economics Research GroupWorld Bank
  • Rashid Hassan
    • Department of Agricultural EconomicsUniversity of Pretoria
    • Center for Environmental Economics for AfricaUniversity of Pretoria
  • Pradeep Kurukulasuriya
    • Energy and Environment Group, Bureau of Development PolicyUnited Nations Development Programme

DOI: 10.1007/s10640-009-9270-z

Cite this article as:
Seo, S.N., Mendelsohn, R., Dinar, A. et al. Environ Resource Econ (2009) 43: 313. doi:10.1007/s10640-009-9270-z


This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future.


Climate changeEconomic impactsAgricultureAfricaAEZ

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009