Environmental and Resource Economics

, Volume 39, Issue 2, pp 55–74

Carbon leakage revisited: unilateral climate policy with directed technical change


DOI: 10.1007/s10640-007-9091-x

Cite this article as:
Maria, C.D. & van der Werf, E. Environ Resource Econ (2008) 39: 55. doi:10.1007/s10640-007-9091-x


Using a stylized theoretical model, we argue that current economic analyses of climate policy tend to over-estimate the degree of carbon leakage, as they abstract from the effects of induced technological change. We analyse carbon leakage in a two-country model with directed technical change, where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions. Climate policy induces changes in relative prices, that cause carbon leakage through a terms-of-trade effect. However, these changes in relative prices also affect the incentives to innovate in different sectors. This leads to a counterbalancing induced-technology effect, which always reduces carbon leakage. We therefore conclude that the leakage rates reported in the literature may be too high, as these estimates neglect the effect of price changes on the incentives to innovate.


Climate PolicyCarbon LeakageDirected Technical ChangeInternational Trade

JEL Classification


Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University College DublinClonskeaghIreland
  2. 2.Kiel Institute for the World EconomyKielGermany