Digestive Diseases and Sciences

, Volume 50, Issue 9, pp 1734–1740

The Value of Serum CA 19-9 in Predicting Cholangiocarcinomas in Patients with Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

Authors

  • Cynthia Levy
    • Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and NutritionUniversity of Florida
  • James Lymp
    • Biostatistics at Mayo Clinic Rochester
  • Paul Angulo
    • Gastroenterology and Hepatology at Mayo Clinic
  • Gregory J. Gores
    • Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and NutritionUniversity of Florida
  • Nicholas Larusso
    • Gastroenterology and Hepatology at Mayo Clinic
    • Division of Gastroenterology, Hepatology and NutritionUniversity of Florida
    • Division of Gastroenterology and HepatologyMayo Clinic Rochester
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10620-005-2927-8

Cite this article as:
Levy, C., Lymp, J., Angulo, P. et al. Dig Dis Sci (2005) 50: 1734. doi:10.1007/s10620-005-2927-8

Abstract

CA 19-9 has been used with questionable accuracy to aid diagnosis of cholangiocarcinoma complicating primary sclerosing cholangitis. We aimed to characterize the test properties of CA 19-9 and of a change in CA 19-9 over time in predicting cholangiocarcinoma. Charts of 208 patients were reviewed. Fourteen patients had cholangiocarcinoma. Median CA 19-9 was higher with cholangiocarcinoma (15 vs. 290 U/ml, p < 0.0001). A cutoff of 129 U/ml provided: sensitivity 78.6%, specificity 98.5%, adjusted positive predictive value 56.6% and negative predictive value 99.4%. The median change over time was 664 U/ml in cholangiocarcinoma compared to 6.7 U/ml in primary sclerosing cholangitis alone (p < 0.0001). A cutoff of 63.2 U/ml for change in CA 19-9 provided: sensitivity 90%, specificity 98% and positive predictive value 42%. Only 2 patients with cholangiocarcinoma were the candidates for curative therapy. In conclusion, the positive predictive value of an elevated CA 19-9 was 56.6%; only advanced cases were detected by this method.

Keywords

primary sclerosing cholangitischolangiocarcinomabiliary tract malignancycarbohydrate 19-9

Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005