Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The impact of future climate change on the glaciers in the Karakoram and Himalaya (KH) is investigated using CMIP5 multi-model temperature and precipitation projections, and a relationship between glacial accumulation-area ratio and mass balance developed for the region based on the last 30 to 40 years of observational data. We estimate that the current glacial mass balance (year 2000) for the entire KH region is -6.6 ± 1 Gta−1, which decreases about sixfold to -35 ± 2 Gta−1 by the 2080s under the high emission scenario of RCP8.5. However, under the low emission scenario of RCP2.6 the glacial mass loss only doubles to -12 ± 2 Gta−1 by the 2080s. We also find that 10.6 and 27 % of the glaciers could face ‘eventual disappearance’ by the end of the century under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively, underscoring the threat to water resources under high emission scenarios.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bahr DB, Dyurgerov M, Meier MF (2009) Sea-level rise from glaciers and ice caps: a lower bound. Geophys Res Lett 36, L03501

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bajracharya SR, Shrestha B (eds) (2011) The status of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, 137p

    Google Scholar 

  • Benn DI, Owen LA (1998) The role of Indian summer monsoon and the mid-latitude westerlies in Himalayan glaciation: review and speculative discussions. J Geol Soc Lond 155:353–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bolch T, Pieczonka T, Benn DI (2011) Multi-decadal mass loss of glaciers in the Everest area (Nepal Himalaya) derived from stereo imagery. Cryosphere 5:349–358

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bolch T, Kulkarni A, Kääb A, Huggel C, Paul F, Cogley JG, Frey H, Kargel JS, Fujita K, Scheel M, Bajracharya S, Stoffel M (2012) The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science 336:310–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bookhagen B, Burbank DW (2010) Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological budget: spatiotemporal distribution of snowmelt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge. J Geophys Res 115, F03019

    Google Scholar 

  • Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH (2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 103:791–802

    Google Scholar 

  • Cogley JG, Kargel JS, Kaser G, Van DerVeen CJ (2010) Tracking the source of glacier misinformation. Science 327:522

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dyurgerov M, Meier MF, Bahr DB (2009) A new index of glacier area change: a tool for glacier monitoring. J Glaciol 55:710–716

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujita K, Takeuchi N, Seko K (1998) Glaciological observations of Yala glacier in Langtang valley, Nepal Himalayas, 1994 and 1996. Bull Glaciol Res 16:75–81

    Google Scholar 

  • Gardelle J, Berthier E, Arnaud Y (2012) Slight mass gain of Karakoram glaciers in the early twenty-first century. Nat Geosci 5:322–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ignéczi Á, Nagy B (2013) Determining steady-state accumulation-area ratios of outlet glaciers for application of outlets in climate reconstructions. Quat Int 293:268–274

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel WW, Beek LPH, Bierkens MFP (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Science 328:1382–1385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel WW, Beek LPH, Konz M, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2012) Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas. Clim Change 110:721–736

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Immerzeel WW, Pellicciotti F, Bierkens MFP (2013) Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds. Nat Geosci 6:742–745

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacob T, Wahr J, Pfeffer WT, Swenson S (2012) Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise. Nature 482:514–518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kääb A, Berthier E, Nuth C, Gardelle J, Arnaud Y (2012) Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas. Nature 488:495–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kripalani RH, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS (2003) Western Himalayan snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall: a re-examination with INSAT and NCEP/NCAR data. Theor Appl Climatol 74:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni AV (1992) Mass balance of Himalayan glaciers using AAR and ELA methods. J Glaciol 38:101–104

    Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni AV, Rathore BP, Alex S (2004) Monitoring of glacial mass balance in the baspa basin using accumulation area ratio method. Curr Sci 86:101–106

    Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni AV, Rathore BP, Mahajan S, Mathur P (2005) Alarming retreat of Parbati glacier, Beas basin, Himachal Pradesh. Curr Sci 88:1844–1850

    Google Scholar 

  • Kulkarni AV et al (2007) Glacial retreat in Himalaya using Indian remote sensing satellite data. Curr Sci 92:69–74

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high resolution grids. Int J Climatol 25, 693–712; doi: 10.1002/joc.1181; http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/browse/badc/cru/data, last updated July 2012

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss R et al (2010) A new approach to scenario development for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Nature 463:747–756

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ohmura A, Kasser P, Funk M (1992) Climate at the equilibrium line of glaciers. J Glaciol 38:397–411

    Google Scholar 

  • Owen LA, Benn DI (2005) Equilibrium-line altitudes of the last glacial maximum for the Himalaya and Tibet: An assessment and evaluation of results. Quat Int 138–139:55–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pandey P, Kulkarni AV, Venkataraman G (2012) Remote sensing study of snowline altitude at the end of melting season, Chandra-Bhaga basin, Himachal Pradesh, 1980–2007. Geo Int. doi:10.1080/10106049.2012.705336

    Google Scholar 

  • Radic V, Bliss A, Beedlow AC, Hock R, Miles E, Cogley JG (2013) Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models. Clim Dyn 1–22, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7

  • Rathore BP, Kulkarni AV, Sherasia NK (2009) Understanding future changes in snow and glacier melt runoff due to global warming in Wangar Gad basin, India. Curr Sci 97:1077–1081

    Google Scholar 

  • Scherler D, Bookhagen B, Strecker MR (2011) Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover. Nat Geosci 4:156–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE (2001) Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in single diagram. J Geophys Res 106:7183–7192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Venkatesh TN, Kulkarni AV, Srinivasan J (2011) Relative effect of slope and equilibrium line altitude on the retreat of Himalayan glaciers. Cryosphere 6:301–311

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wagnon P et al (2007) Four years of mass balance on Chhota Shigri glacier, Himachal Pradesh, India, a new benchmark glacier in the Western Himalaya. J Glaciol 53:603–611

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

RKC thanks the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, for supporting this study in form of the ‘National Environmental Sciences fellowship’. We thank the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, for supporting Divecha Centre for Climate Change. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in the Supplementary Table S1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model outputs. We also thank Dr. G. Cogley and two other anonymous reviewers for providing valuable suggestions.

Competing financial interests statement

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rajiv K. Chaturvedi.

Additional information

Author Contributions

The concept was developed by A.K, G.B and R.K.C; Y.K. and J.J. contributed to data analysis. RKC and A.K led the paper writing process.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(DOCX 501 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Chaturvedi, R.K., Kulkarni, A., Karyakarte, Y. et al. Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections. Climatic Change 123, 315–328 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5

Keywords

Navigation