Climatic Change

, Volume 122, Issue 4, pp 651–664

CO2 equivalences for short-lived climate forcers

Authors

    • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    • Institut für Physik der AtmosphäreDeutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)
  • Gunnar Luderer
    • Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Robert Sausen
    • Institut für Physik der AtmosphäreDeutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1014-y

Cite this article as:
Deuber, O., Luderer, G. & Sausen, R. Climatic Change (2014) 122: 651. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1014-y

Abstract

With advancing climate change there is a growing need to include short-lived climate forcings in cost-efficient mitigation strategies to achieve international climate policy targets. Tools are required to compare the climate impact of perturbations with distinctively different atmospheric lifetimes and atmospheric properties. We present a generic approach for relating the climate effect of short-lived climate forcers (SLCF) to that of CO2 emissions. We distinguish between three alternative types of metric-based factors that can be used to derive CO2 equivalences for SLCF: based on forcing, activity and fossil fuel consumption. We derive numerical values for a wide range of parameter assumptions and apply the resulting generalised approach to the practical example of aviation-induced cloudiness. The evaluation of CO2 equivalences for SLCF tends to be more sensitive to SLCF specific physical uncertainties and the normative choice of a discount rate than to the choice of a physical or economic metric approach. The ability of physical metrics to approximate economic-based metrics alters with changing atmospheric concentration levels and trends. Under reference conditions, physical CO2 equivalences for SLCF provide sufficient proxies for economic ones. The latter, however, allow detailed insight into structural uncertainties. They provide CO2 equivalences for SLCF in short term strategies in the face of failing climate policies, and a temporal evolution of CO2 equivalences over time that is noticeably better in line with cost-efficient climate stabilisation.

Supplementary material

10584_2013_1014_MOESM1_ESM.doc (77 kb)
ESM 1 (DOC 77 kb)

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013