Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S.
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
Human-caused climate change can affect weather and climate extremes, as well as mean climate properties. Analysis of observations and climate model results shows that previously rare (5th percentile) summertime average temperatures are presently occurring with greatly increased frequency in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States. Broad agreement between observations and a mean of results based upon 16 global climate models suggests that this result is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability. This conclusion is further supported by a statistical analysis based on resampling of observations and model output. The same climate models project that the prevalence of previously extreme summer temperatures will continue to increase, occurring in well over 50% of summers by mid-century.
- Anderson BT (2011a) Intensification of seasonal extremes given a 2°C global warming target. Clim Chang. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0213-7, online first
- Anderson BT (2011b) Near term increase in frequency of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target. Clim Chang 108(3):581–589 CrossRef
- Battisti DS, Naylor RL (2009) Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323(5911):240–244 CrossRef
- Christidis N, Stott PA, Zwiers FW, Shiogama H, Nozawa T (2010) Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature forced by human activity: a multi-scale attribution analysis. Clim Dynam 34:11391156. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0615-7 CrossRef
- Diffenbaugh NS, Ashfaq M (2010) Intensification of hot extremes in the United States. Geophys Res Lett 37:L15701. doi:10.1029/2010GL043888 CrossRef
- Diffenbaugh NS, Scherer M (2011) Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries, to appear in Climatic Change Letters.
- Knutson TR, Delworth TL, Dixon KW, Held IM, co-authors (2006) Assessment of twentieth-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J Clim 19:1624–1651 CrossRef
- Maurer EP, Wood AW, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP, Nijssen B (2002) A long-term hydrologically-based data set of land surface fluxes and States for the conterminous United States. J Clim 15:3237–3251 CrossRef
- Maurer EP, Brekke L, Pruitt T, Duffy PB (2007) Fine-resolution climate change projections enhance regional climate change impact studies. Eos, Trans Am Geophys Union 88(47), 504 (online at http://www.agu.org/eos_elec/2007/47-504.html)
- Meehl GA, Tebaldi C (2004) More intense, more frequent, and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science 305(5686):994–997. doi:10.1126/science.1098704 CrossRef
- Meehl, GA, Arblaster JM, Branstator G (2012) Understanding the U.S. East-West differential of heat extremes in terms of record temperatures and the warming hole. J. Clim submitted
- Nakicenovic N et al (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 599 pp
- Pan Z, Arritt RW, Takle ES, Gutowski WJ Jr., Anderson CJ, Segal M (2004) Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a“warming hole”. Geophys Res Lett L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528
- Portmann RW, Solomon S, Hegerl GC (2009) Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(18):7324–7329
- PRISM (PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu, created 2007).
- Stott PA, Jones GS, Christidis N, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Shiogama H (2010) Single-step attribution of increasing probabilities of very warm regional temperatures to human influence. Atmos Sci Lett 2011, doi:10.1002/asl.315
- Tebaldi C, Arblaster JM, Knutti R (2011) Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. Geophys Res Lett 38:L23701. doi:10.1029/2011GL049863 CrossRef
- Wang H, Schubert S, Suarez M, Chen J, Hoerling M, Kumar A, Pegion P (2009) Attribution of the seasonality and regionality in climate trends over the United States during 1950–2000. J Clim 22:2571–2590 CrossRef
- Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Feng J (2011) Anthropogenic influence on extreme daily temperatures at regional scales. J Clim 24(3):881–892 CrossRef
- Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S.
Volume 111, Issue 2 , pp 487-495
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Springer Netherlands
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors
- Author Affiliations
- 1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, L-103, P. O. Box 808, Livermore, CA, 94550, USA
- 2. Climate Central, Inc., 895 Emerson St., Palo Alto, CA, 94301, USA
- 3. National for Atmospheric Research, P. O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA