Climatic Change

, Volume 113, Issue 3, pp 1049–1063

Economic costs of ocean acidification: a look into the impacts on global shellfish production

  • Daiju Narita
  • Katrin Rehdanz
  • Richard S. J. Tol

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0383-3

Cite this article as:
Narita, D., Rehdanz, K. & Tol, R.S.J. Climatic Change (2012) 113: 1049. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0383-3


Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a major global problem. Yet economic assessments of its effects are currently almost absent. Unlike most other marine organisms, mollusks, which have significant commercial value worldwide, have relatively solid scientific evidence of biological impact of acidification and allow us to make such an economic evaluation. By performing a partial-equilibrium analysis, we estimate global and regional economic costs of production loss of mollusks due to ocean acidification. Our results show that the costs for the world as a whole could be over 100 billion USD with an assumption of increasing demand of mollusks with expected income growths combined with a business-as-usual emission trend towards the year 2100. The major determinants of cost levels are the impacts on the Chinese production, which is dominant in the world, and the expected demand increase of mollusks in today’s developing countries, which include China, in accordance with their future income rise. Our results have direct implications for climate policy. Because the ocean acidifies faster than the atmosphere warms, the acidification effects on mollusks would raise the social cost of carbon more strongly than the estimated damage adds to the damage costs of climate change.

Supplementary material

10584_2011_383_MOESM1_ESM.docx (62 kb)
ESM 1(DOCX 61 kb)

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Daiju Narita
    • 1
  • Katrin Rehdanz
    • 1
    • 2
  • Richard S. J. Tol
    • 3
    • 4
    • 5
    • 6
  1. 1.Kiel Institute for the World EconomyKielGermany
  2. 2.Department of EconomicsChristian-Albrechts-University of KielKielGermany
  3. 3.Economic and Social Research Institute, Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s QuayDublin 2Ireland
  4. 4.Institute for Environmental StudiesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
  5. 5.Department of Spatial EconomicsVrije Universiteit AmsterdamAmsterdamThe Netherlands
  6. 6.Department of EconomicsArts Building, Trinity CollegeDublin 2Ireland