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Impacts of climate change on August stream discharge in the Central-Rocky Mountains

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Abstract

In the snowmelt dominated hydrology of arid western US landscapes, late summer low streamflow is the most vulnerable period for aquatic ecosystem habitats and trout populations. This study analyzes mean August discharge at 153 streams throughout the Central Rocky Mountains of North America (CRMs) for changes in discharge from 1950–2008. The purpose of this study was to determine if: (1) Mean August stream discharge values have decreased over the last half-century; (2) Low discharge values are occurring more frequently; (3) Climatic variables are influencing August discharge trends. Here we use a strict selection process to characterize gauging stations based on amount of anthropogenic impact in order to identify heavily impacted rivers and understand the relationship between climatic variables and discharge trends. Using historic United States Geologic Survey discharge data, we analyzed data for trends of 40–59 years. Combining of these records along with aerial photos and water rights records we selected gauging stations based on the length and continuity of discharge records and categorized each based on the amount of diversion. Variables that could potentially influence discharge such as change in vegetation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were examined, but we found that that both did not significantly influence August discharge patterns. Our analyses indicate that non-regulated watersheds are experiencing substantial declines in stream discharge and we have found that 89% of all non-regulated stations exhibit a declining slope. Additionally our results here indicate a significant (α ≤ 0.10) decline in discharge from 1951–2008 for the CRMs. Correlations results at our pristine sites show a negative relationship between air temperatures and discharge and these results coupled with increasing air temperature trends pose serious concern for aquatic ecosystems in CRMs.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Joel Harper for his scientific insight. Ryan Anderson for extended help with R coding, Dr. Ke Zhang for extended help with time series analysis in R, and Dr. Graham for statistical advice. The data for this project was graciously provided by USGS, Montana DNRC, West Map Climate Initiative, Inside Idaho, Montana State Library and PRISM group. The project would not have been possible without financial support from The Wilderness Society.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG), College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, 32 campus drive, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA

    Jason C. Leppi & Steven W. Running

  2. School of Environment Natural Resources, and Geography, 2nd Floor Environment Centre Wales, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd, LL57 2UW, United Kingdom

    Thomas H. DeLuca

  3. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Montana, Mathematics Building, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA

    Solomon W. Harrar

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  1. Jason C. Leppi
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  2. Thomas H. DeLuca
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  3. Solomon W. Harrar
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  4. Steven W. Running
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Correspondence to Jason C. Leppi.

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Leppi, J.C., DeLuca, T.H., Harrar, S.W. et al. Impacts of climate change on August stream discharge in the Central-Rocky Mountains. Climatic Change 112, 997–1014 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0235-1

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