Climatic Change

, Volume 103, Issue 1, pp 55–67

Toward Bayesian uncertainty quantification for forestry models used in the United Kingdom Greenhouse Gas Inventory for land use, land use change, and forestry

Authors

    • Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH-Edinburgh)
  • Amanda Thomson
    • Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH-Edinburgh)
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9917-3

Cite this article as:
van Oijen, M. & Thomson, A. Climatic Change (2010) 103: 55. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9917-3

Abstract

The Greenhouse Gas Inventory for the United Kingdom currently uses a simple carbon-flow model, CFLOW, to calculate the emissions and removals associated with forest planting since 1920. Here, we aim to determine whether a more complex process-based model, the BASic FORest (BASFOR) simulator, could be used instead of CFLOW. The use of a more complex approach allows spatial heterogeneity in soils and weather to be accounted for, but places extra demands on uncertainty quantification. We show how Bayesian methods can be used to address this problem.

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010