A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments
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- Winkler, J.A., Thornsbury, S., Artavia, M. et al. Climatic Change (2010) 103: 445. doi:10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1
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A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.