, Volume 94, Issue 3-4, pp 351-361
Date: 27 Nov 2008

How robust is the long-run relationship between temperature and radiative forcing?

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Abstract

This paper examines the robustness of the long-run, cointegrating, relationship between global temperatures and radiative forcing. It is found that the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of radiative forcing is of the order of 2 ± 1°C. This result is robust across the sample period of 1850 to 2000, thus providing further confirmation of the quantitative impact of radiative forcing and, in particular, CO2 forcing, on temperatures.