Climatic Change

, 94:351

First online:

How robust is the long-run relationship between temperature and radiative forcing?

  • Terence C. MillsAffiliated withDepartment of Economics, Loughborough University Email author 

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This paper examines the robustness of the long-run, cointegrating, relationship between global temperatures and radiative forcing. It is found that the temperature sensitivity to a doubling of radiative forcing is of the order of 2 ± 1°C. This result is robust across the sample period of 1850 to 2000, thus providing further confirmation of the quantitative impact of radiative forcing and, in particular, CO2 forcing, on temperatures.