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The Enso-Fire Dynamic in Insular Southeast Asia

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Abstract

We examined the spatiotemporal patterns of fire in insular Southeast Asia from July 1996 to December 2001 using a set of consistent, nighttime fire observations provided by the Along Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) sensor. Monthly ATSR fire counts were analyzed relative to georeferenced climatic and land-cover data from a variety of sources. We found that fires were strongly correlated with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (r = −0.75) and Niño 3.4 index (r = 0.72) in forested land-cover types within the equatorial belt (5.5∘S–5.5∘N). Cross-correlation analysis revealed that detrended SOI was modestly correlated (r = 0.42) with detrended monthly fire count with a positive lag of four months. However, our analysis also revealed that fire counts reached their maximum 6 months before the absolute maximum of SOI. Annual sums of SOI (∑SOI) and fire counts revealed linearity for ∑SOI≤ 0. Overall, the results suggest that ENSO indices may have limited predictive utility at a monthly time scale, but that temporal aggregation and additional fire observations may enhance our capacity to forecast fires in different cover types based on ENSO data.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography and Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, 33124, U.S.A.

    Douglas O. fuller

  2. Global Science & Technology Inc., 10210 Greenbelt Road, Lanham, Maryland, 20706, U.S.A.

    Kevin Murphy

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  1. Douglas O. fuller
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  2. Kevin Murphy
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Correspondence to Douglas O. fuller.

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fuller, D.O., Murphy, K. The Enso-Fire Dynamic in Insular Southeast Asia. Climatic Change 74, 435–455 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-0432-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-0432-5

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