Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
Rent the article at a discountRent now
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.Get Access
The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for integrated assessment modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In most cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.
- Baoming, Z. (1994) Clean coal production and ... use of coal in China. The Clean and Efficient use of Coal and Lignite: Its Role in Energy, Environment and Life. International Energy Agency, Paris, France
- Brenkert, A., Smith, S. J., Kim, S. H., and Pitcher, H. M.: 2003, Model Documentation: MiniCAM 2001, PNNL.
- CNN: 2001, ‘China cracks down on illegal mines’, CNN.com, 2.25.2001 (http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/east/02/25/china.mines/).
- Dai, A., Wigley, T. M. L., Boville, B. A., Kiehl, J. T., Buja, L. E. (2000) Climates of the twentieth and twenty first centuries simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Climate 14: pp. 485-519
- Dasgupta, S., Mody, A., Roy, S., and Wheeler, D.: 2001, ‘Environmental regulation and development: A cross-country empirical analysis’, Oxford Dev. Stud. 29(2).
- EEA-ETC/ACC: 2002, European Environment Agency and European Topic Centre on Air Emissions (http://eea.eu.int/)
- Energy Information Agency (EIA): 2001, International Energy Outlook 2000 (DOE/EIA-0484).
- Energy Information Agency (EIA): 2002a, ‘China country analysis’, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/china.html.
- Energy Information Agency (EIA): 2002b, ‘China country analysis’, http://www.eia.doe.gov/.
- Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC): 1998, ‘Review of the implementation of commitments and of other provisions of the convention. Second compilation and synthesis of second national communications. Addendum. Tables of inventories of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases for 1990–1995 and projections up to 2020’, FCCC/CP/1998/11/Add.2.
- Fujita, S. (1993) Sanseiu kenkyu 100 nen no rekishi to sono hensen. J. Res. Environ. 29: pp. 82-88
- Grübler, A. (1998a) A review of global and regional sulfur emission scenarios. Mitigat. Adaptat. Strat. Global Change 2–4: pp. 383-418
- Grübler, A. (1998b) Technology and Global Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
- Grübler, A.: 1998c, ‘Modeling purchasing power parities’, unpublished.
- Harbaugh, W. T., Levinson, A., Wilson, D. M. (2002) Reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental Kuznets curve. Rev Econ. Stat. 83: pp. 541-551
- Harvey, L. D. D. (2000) Global Warming: The Hard Science. Prentice-Hall, New York
- Hilton, F. G. H., Levinson, A. (1998) Factoring the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from automotive lead emissions. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 35: pp. 126-141 CrossRef
- International Energy Agency/Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (IEA/OECD): 1997, Energy Statistics and Balances (diskette service), International Energy Agency, Paris.
- Logan, J., Gou, Y., Shi, Y., Chandler, W., Zhou, D. (1998) China's Electric Power Options: An Analysis of Economic and Environmental Costs. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Washington, DC
- Logan, J. (2001) Chinese energy and carbon trends: Did coal consumption really decline so dramatically?. Pacific Asian J. Energy 11: pp. 1-13
- Mylona, S.: 1993, Trends of Sulphur Dioxide Emissions, Air Concentrations and Depositions of Sulphur in Europe Since 1980, EMEP/MSC-W Report 2/93.
- Mylona, S. (1996) Sulphur dioxide emissions in Europe 1880–1991 and their effect on sulphur concentrations and depositions. Tellus 48B: pp. 662-689
- Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R. (eds.): 2000, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
- NEPO: 1997, Energy Development in Thailand, National Energy Policy Office, NEPO. http://www.nepo.go.th/doc/doc-1997Report.html.
- Qi, L., Hao, J., Lu, M. (1995) SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China. Water Air Soil Pollut. 85: pp. 1873-1878
- Ramaswamy, V. Radiative forcing of climate change. In: Houghton, J. T. eds. (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
- Raper, S. C. B., Wigley, T. M. L., Warrick, R. A. In: Milliman, J. D., Haq, B. U. eds. (1996) Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Subsidence: Causes, Consequences and Strategies. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 11-45
- Roehrl, R. A., Riahi, K. (2000) Technology dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation: A cost assessment. Technol. Forecast. Social Change 63: pp. 231-261
- Shah, J., Nagpal, T., Johnson, T., Amann, M., Carmichael, G., Foell, W., Green, C., Hettelingh, J.-P., Hordijk, L., Li, J., Peng, C., Pu, Y., Ramankutty, R., Streets, D. (2000) Integrated analysis for acid rain in Asia: Policy implications and results of rains – Asia model. Annu. Rev. Energy Environ. 25: pp. 339-375 CrossRef
- Shine, K. P., de Forster, P. M. F. (1999) The effect of human activity on radiative forcing of climate change: A review of recent developments. Global Planet. Change 20: pp. 205-225 CrossRef
- Smith, S. J., Andres, R., Conception, E., and Lurz, J.: 2004, ‘Historical sulfur dioxide emissions 1850–2000: Methods and results’, PNNL, JGCRI Research Report, PNNL-14537. Available at globalchange.umd.edu.
- Smith, S. J., Pitcher, H., Wigley, T. M. L. (2001) Historic and regional anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. Global Planet. Change 29: pp. 99-119
- Summers, R., Heston, A. (1991) The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An expanded set of international comparisons, 1950–1988. Q. J. Econ. 106: pp. 327-368
- US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA): 2002, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990–2000, USEPA #236-R-02-003, Washington, DC.
- US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA): 1996, National Air Pollutant Emission Trends, 1900–1995, EPA-454/R-96-007, Washington, DC.
- US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA): 1998, National Air Pollutant Emission Trends Procedures Document, 1900–1996, EPA-454/R-98-008, Washington, DC.
- United Nations: 2001, Long-Range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division.
- Wigley, T. M. L. (1991) Could reducing fossil-fuel emissions cause global warming. Nature 349: pp. 503-506 CrossRef
- Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B. (1992) Implications for climate and sea-level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature 357: pp. 293-300 CrossRef
- Wigley, T. M. L., Raper, S. C. B. (2002) Reasons for larger warming projections in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. J. Climate 15: pp. 2945-2952
- Wigley, T. M. L., Richels, R., Edmonds, J. A. (1996) Economic and environmental choices in the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Nature 379: pp. 240-243 CrossRef
- Wigley, T. M. L., Smith, S. J., Prather, M. J. (2002) Radiative forcing due to reactive gas emissions. J. Climate 15: pp. 2690-2696 CrossRef
- World Bank: 1992, World Development Report 1992, Oxford University Press, New York.
- World Bank: 1998, World Development Indicators 1998, CD-ROM.
- Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
Volume 73, Issue 3 , pp 267-318
- Cover Date
- Print ISSN
- Online ISSN
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Additional Links
- Industry Sectors