# Long-term evolution of orbits about a precessing oblate planet: 3. A semianalytical and a purely numerical approach

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DOI: 10.1007/s10569-007-9099-0

- Cite this article as:
- Gurfil, P., Lainey, V. & Efroimsky, M. Celestial Mech Dyn Astr (2007) 99: 261. doi:10.1007/s10569-007-9099-0

## Abstract

Construction of an accurate theory of orbits about a precessing and nutating oblate planet, in terms of osculating elements defined in a frame associated with the equator of date, was started in Efroimsky and Goldreich (2004) and Efroimsky (2004, 2005, 2006a, b). Here we continue this line of research by combining that analytical machinery with numerical tools. Our model includes three factors: the *J*
_{2} of the planet, its nonuniform equinoctial precession described by the Colombo formalism, and the gravitational pull of the Sun. This semianalytical and seminumerical theory, based on the Lagrange planetary equations for the Keplerian elements, is then applied to Deimos on very long time scales (up to 1 billion years). In parallel with the said semianalytical theory for the Keplerian elements defined in the co-precessing equatorial frame, we have also carried out a completely independent, purely numerical, integration in a quasi-inertial Cartesian frame. The results agree to within fractions of a percent, thus demonstrating the applicability of our semianalytical model over long timescales. Another goal of this work was to make an independent check of whether the equinoctial-precession variations predicted for a rigid Mars by the Colombo model could have been sufficient to repel its moons away from the equator. An answer to this question, in combination with our knowledge of the current position of Phobos and Deimos, will help us to understand whether the Martian obliquity could have undergone the large changes ensuing from the said model (Ward 1973; Touma and Wisdom 1993, 1994; Laskar and Robutel 1993), or whether the changes ought to have been less intensive (Bills 2006; Paige et al. 2007). It has turned out that, for low initial inclinations, the orbit inclination reckoned from the precessing equator of date is subject only to small variations. This is an extension, to non-uniform equinoctial precession given by the Colombo model, of an old result obtained by Goldreich (1965) for the case of uniform precession and a low initial inclination. However, near-polar initial inclinations may exhibit considerable variations for up to ±10 deg in magnitude. This result is accentuated when the obliquity is large. Nevertheless, the analysis confirms that an oblate planet can, indeed, afford large variations of the equinoctial precession over hundreds of millions of years, without repelling its near-equatorial satellites away from the equator of date: the satellite inclination oscillates but does not show a secular increase. Nor does it show secular decrease, a fact that is relevant to the discussion of the possibility of high-inclination capture of Phobos and Deimos.