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Disentangling the effects of global climate and regional land-use change on the current and future distribution of mangroves in South Africa

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Abstract

The mangrove distribution in South Africa is fragmented and restricted to small forest patches occupying only 16 % of the estuaries within the current range. In this study we used species distribution models to test (1) whether the absence of mangrove forest and its species (Avicennia marina, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza and Rhizophora mucronata) within their current range is driven by climate or by climate combined with human or geomorphic perturbation and (2) how climate change may potentially affect the latitudinal limit of the mangrove forests and its species in South Africa. We used three modelling techniques (generalized linear models, generalized additive models and gradient boosting machines) and a set of three climate-based predictive variables (minimum air temperature of the coldest month, waterbalance and growing-degree days) combined separately with an index of human or geomorphic perturbation. Climate variables for the future projections were derived from two general circulation models driven by two socio-economic scenarios (A2a and B2a). Within the range of the mangrove forest, the fragmented distribution of the mangroves in South Africa was not explained by our set of climate variables alone. The index of human perturbations slightly improved the predictions but the index of geomorphic perturbation did not. Climate change will create climatically suitable sites for the mangrove forest and the two species A. marina and B. gymnorrhiza beyond their current limits, but model outcomes did not agree on the future potential distribution of R. mucronata. We were able to successfully predict range limits and to detect future climatically suitable sites beyond the current limits. Factors controlling mangrove distribution within its range are still to be identified although absences were partly explained by human perturbations.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Dennis De Ryck, Sabine Hoppe-Speer and Sageran Naidoo for fieldwork assistance. We also thank Christian Körner and Niklaus Zimmermann for their comments on the early stage of this manuscript. CFR was founded by the European Research Council (233399) as a member of the TREELIM project. The field mission to South Africa was funded by the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, by the Marie-Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme ‘Coastal Research Network on Environmental Changes—CREC’ (EC Grant agreement no. 247514), and by the Marine Science for Management (MASMA) grant on ‘Understanding and predicting responses of mangrove trees and formations to climate change in the Western Indian Ocean’ (Grant No. MASMA/CC/2010/11) of the Western Indian Ocean Marine Sciences Association.

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  1. Laboratory for Plant Biology and Nature Management, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050, Brussels, Belgium

    Katrien Quisthoudt, Farid Dahdouh-Guebas & Nico Koedam

  2. Department of Botany, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, P.O. Box 77000, Port Elizabeth, 6031, South Africa

    Janine Adams

  3. Department of Botany, Rhodes University, P.O. Box 94, Grahamstown, 6140, South Africa

    Anusha Rajkaran

  4. Laboratory of Systems Ecology and Resource Management, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt 50, 1050, Brussels, Belgium

    Farid Dahdouh-Guebas

  5. Institute of Botany, Universität Basel, Schönbeinstrasse 6, 4056, Basel, Switzerland

    Christophe F. Randin

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  1. Katrien Quisthoudt
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Correspondence to Katrien Quisthoudt.

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Nico Koedam and Christophe F. Randin are co-last authors by alphabetical order by last name.

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Quisthoudt, K., Adams, J., Rajkaran, A. et al. Disentangling the effects of global climate and regional land-use change on the current and future distribution of mangroves in South Africa. Biodivers Conserv 22, 1369–1390 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-013-0478-4

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