Re-assessing current extinction rates
- Nigel E. Stork
- … show all 1 hide
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95 *
* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
Abstract
There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species–area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor monitoring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining ‘old growth’ species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.
Look
Inside
Within this Article
- Introduction
- Current data for extinctions and the number of species on Earth
- Estimates of extinction rates
- Why predicted extinction rates do not match empirical data
- Concluding remarks
- References
- References
Related Content
Supplementary Material (0)
References (110)
- AMNH (1998) National survey reveals biodiversity crisis—scientific experts believe we are in midst of fastest mass extinction in Earth’s history. http://www.amnh.org/museum/press/feature/biofact.html
- Barlow J, Gardner TA, Araujo IS et al (2007) Quantifying the biodiversity value of tropical primary, secondary and plantation forests. PNAS 47:18555–18560
- Batten LA et al (1990) Red Data birds in Britain: action for rare, threatened and important species. NCC and RSPB, T. and A.D. Poyser, London
- Botkin DB, Saxe H, Araujo MB et al (2008) Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. Bioscience 57:227–236
- Bradshaw CJA, Giam X, Tan HTW et al (2008) Threat or invasive status in legumes is related to opposite extremes of the same ecological and life-history attributes. J Ecol 96:869–883
- Bratton JH (1991) British Red Data Books. 3. Invertebrates other than insects. Joint Nature Conservation Committee, London
- Brook BW (2008) Synergies between climate change, extinction and invasive vertebrates. Wildl Res 35:249–252
- Brook BW, Sodhi NS, Ng PKL (2003) Catastrophic extinctions follow deforestation in Singapore. Nature 424:420–423
- Brook BW, Bradshaw CJA, Koh LP et al (2006) Momentum drives the crash: mass extinction in the tropics. Biotropica 38:302–305
- Brook BW, Sodhi NS, Bradshaw CJA (2008) Synergies among extinction drivers under global change. TREE 23:453–460
- Brooks TM, Balmford A (1996) Atlantic forest extinctions. Nature 380:115
- Brooks TM, Pimm SL, Oyugi JO (1999) Time lag between deforestation and bird extinction in tropical forest fragments. Conserv Biol 15:1140–1150
- Brown KS Jr, Brown GG (1992) Habitat alteration and species loss in Brazilian forests. In: Whitmore TC, Sayer JA (eds) Tropical deforestation and species extinction. Chapman & Hall, London, pp 119–142
- Carnaval AC, Hickerson MJ, Haddad CFB et al (2005) Stability predicts genetic diversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot. Science 323:785–789
- Chades I, McDonald-Madden E, McCarthy MA et al (2008) When to stop managing or surveying cryptic threatened species. PNAS 105:13936–13940
- Chazdon RL, Peres CA, Dent D et al (2009) Where are the wild things? Assessing the potential for species conservation in tropical secondary forests. Conserv Biol 23:1406–1407
- Colwell RK, Brehm G, Cardelús C et al (2008) Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science 322:258–261
- Corlett RT (2007) The impact of hunting on the mammalian fauna of tropical Asian forests. Biotropica 39:292–303
- Curnutt J, Pimm SL (2001) How many bird species in Hawai’i and the Central Pacific before first contact? In: Scott JM, Conant S, van Riper III S (eds) Evolution, ecology, conservation, and management of Hawaiian birds: a vanishing avifauna. Stud Avian Biol 22:15–30
- Diamond JM (1972) Biogeographic kinetics: estimation of relaxation times for avifaunas of southwest Pacific Islands. PNAS 69:3199–3204
- Diamond JM (1987) Extant unless proven extinct? Or extinct unless proven extant? Conserv Biol 1:77–79
- Dirzo R, Raven PH (2003) Global state of biodiversity and loss. Annu Rev Environ Resour 28:137–167
- Dobson A, Lafferty KD, Kuris AM et al (2008) Homage to Linnaeus: how many parasites? How many hosts? PNAS 105:11482–11489
- Dunn RR (2004) Recovery of faunal communities during tropical forest regeneration. Conserv Biol 18:302–309
- Ehrlich PR, Ehrlich AH (1981) Extinction: the causes of the disappearance of species. Random House, New York
- Ehrlich PR, Wilson EO (1991) Biodiversity studies: science and policy. Science 253:758–762
- Erwin TL (1982) Tropical forests: their richness in Coleoptera and other arthropod species. Coleopt Bull 36:74–75
- Erwin TL (1988) The tropical forest canopy: the heart of biotic diversity. In: Wilson EO, Peters FM (eds) Biodiversity. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp 123–129
- Feeley KJ, Silman MR (2008) Unrealistic assumptions invalidate extinction estimates. PNAS 105:E121
- Feeley KJ, Silman MR (2009) Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species. PNAS 106:12382–12387
- Fonseca CR (2009) The silent mass extinction of insect herbivores in biodiversity hotspots. Conserv Biol. doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01327.x
- Grassle JF, Maciolek NJ (1992) Deep-sea species richness: regional and local diversity estimates from quantitative bottom samples. Am Nat 139:313–341
- Hamilton A, Basset Y, Benke KK et al (submitted) Quantifying uncertainty in estimating global arthropod species richness. Am Nat
- Hammond PM (1992) Species inventory. In: Groombridge B (ed) Global biodiversity, status of the Earth’s living resources. Chapman and Hall, London, pp 17–39
- Hammond PM (1995) Described and estimated species numbers: an objective assessment of current knowledge. In: Allsopp D, Colwell RR, Hawksworth DL (eds) Microbial diversity and ecosystem function. CAB International, Wallingford, pp 29–71
- Hawksworth DL (1991) The fungal dimension of biodiversity: magnitude, significance and conservation. Mycol Res 95:641–655
- Heywood VH, Stuart SN (1992) Species extinctions in tropical forests. In: Whitmore TC, Sayer JA (eds) Tropical deforestation and species extinction. Chapman and Hall, London, pp 91–117
- Hubbell SP (2001) The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton
- Hubbell SP, He F, Condit R et al (2008) How many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct? PNAS 105:11498–11504
- Hugall A, Moritz C, Mousali A, Stanisic J (2002) Reconciling paleodistribution models and comparative phylogeography in the Wet Tropics rainforest land snail Gnarosophia bellendenkerensis (Brazier 1875). PNAS 99:6112–6117
- IUCN (2009) http://www.iucnredlist.org/. Accessed 4 Sep 2009
- Johns AG (1997) Timber production and biodiversity conservation in tropical rainforests. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Jones WG, Hill KD, Allen JM (1995) Wollemia nobilis, a new living Australian genus and species in the Araucariaceae. Telopea 6:173–176
- Koh LP, Dunn RR, Sodhi NS et al (2004) Species co-extinctions and the biodiversity crisis. Science 305:1632–1634
- Lane DJW, Kingston T, Lee BPY-H (2006) Dramatic decline in bat diversity in Singapore with implications for Southeast Asia. Biol Conserv 131:584–593
- Laurance WF (1991) Ecological correlates of extinction proneness in Australian tropical rain forest mammals. Conserv Biol 5:79–89
- Laurance WF (2007) Have we overstated the biodiversity crisis? TREE 22:65–70
- Laurance WF, Cochrane MA, Bergen S et al (2001) The future of the Brazilian Amazon. Science 291:438–439
- Lawton JH, Bignell DE, Bolton B et al (1998) Biodiversity inventories, indicator taxa and effects of habitat modification in tropical forest. Nature 391:72–76
- Lewis OT (2006) Climate change, species–area curves and the extinction crisis. Philos Trans R Soc B 361:163–171
- Lomborg B (2001) The sceptical environmentalist: measuring the real state of the world. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
- Lovejoy TE (1980) A projection of species extinctions. In: Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ), The Global 2000 Report to the President, vol CEQ. Washington, DC, pp 328–331
- Lugo AE (1988) Estimating reductions in the diversity of tropical forest species. In: Wilson EO, Peter FM (eds) Biodiversity. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, pp 58–70
- Mace GM (1994) Classifying threatened species: means and ends. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B 344:91–97
- Manne LL, Brooks TM, Pimm SL (1999) Relative risk of extinction of passerine birds on continents and islands. Nature 399:258–261
- Mawdsley NA, Stork NE (1995) Species extinctions in insects: ecological and biogeographical considerations. In: Harrington R, Stork NE (eds) Insects in a changing environment. Academic Press, London, pp 322–369
- May RM (1988) How many species are there on Earth? Science 241:1441–1449
- May RM (1992) Bottoms up for the oceans. Nature 357:278–279
- May RM (1998) The dimensions of life on Earth. In: Raven PH (ed) Nature and human society: the quest for a sustainable world. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp 30–45
- McKinney ML (1997) Extinction vulnerability and selectivity: combining ecological and paleontological views. Ann Rev Ecol Syst 28:495–516
- Meijaard E, Sheil D, Nasi R et al (2005) Life after logging: reconciling wildlife conservation and production forestry in Indonesian Borneo. CIFOR, Jakarta Indonesia
- Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Current state and trends, vol 1. Island Press, Washington, DC
- Mora C, Metzger R, Rollo A et al (2007) Experimental simulations about the effects of overexploitation and habitat fragmentation on populations facing experimental warming. Proc Biol Sci 274:1023–1028
- Muller-Landau HC (2007) Predicting the long-term effects of hunting on plant species composition and diversity in tropical forests. Biotropica 39:372–384
- Myers N (1979) The sinking ark: a new look at the problem of disappearing species. Pergamon Press, Oxford
- Myers N (1988) Threatened biotas: ‘hotspots’ in tropical forests. Environmentalist 8:1–20
- Myers N (1993) Questions of mass extinction. Biodivers Conserv 2:2–17
- Myers N (2003) Conservation of biodiversity: how are we doing? Environmentalist 23:9–15
- Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG et al (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403:853–858
- Newmark WD (1991) Tropical forest fragmentation and the local extinction of understory birds in the eastern Usambara mountains, Tanzania. Conserv Biol 5:67–68
- Novotny V, Basset Y, Miller SE et al (2002) Low host specificity of herbivorous insects in a tropical forest. Nature 416:841–844
- Orme CDL, Davies RG, Burgess M et al (2005) Global hotspots of species richness are not congruent with endemism or threat. Nature 436:1016–1019
- Pimm SL, Brooks TM (2000) The sixth extinction: how large, where and when? In: Raven PH (ed) Nature and human society: the quest for a sustainable world. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, p 46
- Pimm SL, Harvey J (2001) No need to worry about the future. Nature 414:149–150
- Pimm SL, Raven PH (2000) Extinction by numbers. Nature 403:843–845
- Pimm SK, Russell GJ, Gittleman JL, Brooks TM (1995) The future of biodiversity. Science 269:347–349
- Pimm SL, Raven R, Peterson A et al (2006) Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions. PNAS 103:10941–10946
- Possingham HP, Andelman SJ, Burgman MA et al (2002) Limits to the use of threatened species lists. TREE 17:503–507
- Purvis A, Agapow P-M, Gittleman JL et al (2008) Nonrandom extinction and the loss of evolutionary history. Science 288:328–330
- Raup DM (1986) Biological extinction in Earth history. Science 231:1528–1533
- Raven PH (1987) The scope of the plant conservation problem world-wide. In: Bramwell D et al (eds) Botanic gardens and the world conservation strategy. Academic Press, London, pp 19–29
- Raven PH (1988) Our diminishing tropical forests. In: Wilson EO, Peter FM (eds) Biodiversity. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC, pp 119–122
- Raven PH, McNeely JA (1998) Biological extinctions: its scope and meaning for us. In: Guruswamy LD, McNeely JA (eds) Protection of global biodiversity: converging strategies. Duke University Press, Durham, pp 13–32
- Reid WV (1992) How many species will there be? In: Whitmore TC, Sayer JA (eds) Tropical deforestation and species extinction. Chapman and Hall, London, pp 55–73
- Sharrock JTR (1974) The changing status of breeding birds in Britain and Ireland. In: Hawksworth DL (ed) The changing flora and fauna of Britain. Academic Press for the Systematics Association, London, pp 203–220
- Shirt DB (ed) (1987) British Red Data Books. 2. Insects. Nature Conservation Council, Peterborough
- Simberloff D (1986) Are we on the verge of a mass extinction in tropical rainforests? In: Elliott DK (ed) Dynamics of extinction. Wiley, New York, pp 165–180
- Simberloff D (1992) Do species–area curves predict extinction in fragmented forest. In: Whitmore TC, Sayer JA (eds) Tropical deforestation and species extinction. Chapman and Hall, London, pp 75–89
- Simon JL (1995) Why do we hear prophecies of doom from every side? The Futurist 29:19–24
- Sloan S (2007) Fewer people may not mean more forest for Latin American forest frontiers. Biotropica 39:443–446
- Smith FDM, May RM, Pellew R et al (1993) Estimating extinction rates. Nature 364:494–496
- Sodhi NS, Koh PL, Peh KS-H, Tan HTW et al (2008) Correlates of extinction proneness in tropical angiosperms. Divers Distrib 14:1–10
- Steadman DW (1995) Prehistoric extinctions of Pacific Island Birds: biodiversity meets Zooarchaeology. Science 267:1123–1131
- Stork NE (1988) Insect diversity: facts, fiction and speculation. Biol J Linn Soc 35:321–337
- Stork NE (1997) Measuring global biodiversity and its decline. In: Reaka-Kudla ML, Wilson DE, Wilson EO (eds) Biodiversity II: understanding and protecting our biological resources. Joseph Henry Press, Washington, DC, pp 41–48
- Stork NE (1999) The magnitude of biodiversity and its decline. In: Cracraft J, Grifo JT (eds) The living planet in crisis: biodiversity, science and policy. Columbia University Press, New York, pp 3–32
- Stork NE, Lyal CHC (1993) Extinction or ‘co-extinction’ rates? Nature 366:307
- Stork NE, Coddington JA, Colwell RK et al (2009) Vulnerability and resilience of tropical forest species to land use change. Conserv Biol 23:1438–1447
- Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE et al (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148
- Tilman DR, May RM, Lehman CL et al (1994) Habitat destructions and the extinction debt. Nature 371:65–66
- van Roosmalen MGM, van Roosmalen T, Mittermeier RA (2002) A taxonomic review of the titi monkeys, Genus Callicebus Thomas, 1903, with the description of two new species, Callicebus bernhardi and Callicebus stephennashi, from Brazilian Amazonia. Neotrop Primates 10(Suppl):1–53
- Wang BC, Sork VL, Leong MT et al (2007) Hunting of mammals reduces seed removal and dispersal of the Afrotropical tree Antrocaryon klaineanum (Anacardiaceae). Biotropica 39:340–347
- Williams SE, Bolitho EE, Fox S (2003) Climate change in Australian tropical rainforests: an impending environmental catastrophe. Proc R Soc Lond B 270:1887–1892
- Willis KJ, Bennett KD, Walker D (2004) The evolutionary legacy of the ice ages. Philos Trans R Soc B 359:15–158
- Wilson EO (1988) The current state of biological diversity. In: Wilson EO, Peters FM (eds) Biodiversity. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, pp 3–18
- Wilson EO (1989) Threats to biodiversity. Scientific American, September, pp 108–116
- Wright SJ, Muller-Landau HC (2006a) The future of tropical forest species. Biotropica 38:287–301
- Wright SJ, Muller-Landau HC (2006b) The uncertain future of tropical forest species. Biotropica 38:443–445
- Wright SJ, Stoner KE, Beckman N et al (2007) The plight of large animals in tropical forests and the consequences for plant regeneration. Biotropica 39:289–291
- Wright SJ, Muller-Landau HC, Schipper J (2009) The future of tropical species on a warmer planet. Conserv Biol 23:1418–1426
About this Article
- Title
- Re-assessing current extinction rates
- Journal
-
Biodiversity and Conservation
Volume 19, Issue 2 , pp 357-371 - Cover Date
- 2010-02-01
- DOI
- 10.1007/s10531-009-9761-9
- Print ISSN
- 0960-3115
- Online ISSN
- 1572-9710
- Publisher
- Springer Netherlands
- Additional Links
- Topics
- Keywords
-
- Extinction
- Extinction crisis
- Extinction rates
- Red Data lists
- Threatened species
- Industry Sectors
- Authors
-
-
Nigel E. Stork
(1)
-
Nigel E. Stork
- Author Affiliations
-
- 1. Department of Resource Management and Geography, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, University of Melbourne, 500 Yarra Boulevard, Richmond, VIC, 3121, Australia