Original Contribution

EcoHealth

, Volume 8, Issue 4, pp 456-467

Temporal and Spatial Variability in the Distribution of Vibrio vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay: A Hindcast Study

  • Vinita BanakarAffiliated withEarth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of MarylandMaryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of Maryland
  • , Guillaume Constantin de MagnyAffiliated withUniversity of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer StudiesMIVEGEC (UMR 5290 CNRS-IRD-UM1), Centre de recherche IRD
  • , John JacobsAffiliated withNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Cooperative Oxford Laboratory
  • , Raghu MurtuguddeAffiliated withEarth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland
  • , Anwar HuqAffiliated withMaryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of Maryland
  • , Robert J. WoodAffiliated withNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, Cooperative Oxford Laboratory
  • , Rita R. ColwellAffiliated withUniversity of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer StudiesMaryland Pathogen Research Institute, University of MarylandDepartment of Environment Health, John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Email author 

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Abstract

Vibrio vulnificus, an estuarine bacterium, is the causative agent of seafood-related gastroenteritis, primary septicemia, and wound infections worldwide. It occurs as part of the normal microflora of coastal marine environments and can be isolated from water, sediment, and oysters. Hindcast prediction was undertaken to determine spatial and temporal variability in the likelihood of occurrence of V. vulnificus in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay. Hindcast predictions were achieved by forcing a multivariate habitat suitability model with simulated sea surface temperature and salinity in the Bay for the period between 1991 and 2005 and the potential hotspots of occurrence of V. vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay were identified. The likelihood of occurrence of V. vulnificus during high and low rainfall years was analyzed. From results of the study, it is concluded that hindcast prediction yields an improved understanding of environmental conditions associated with occurrence of V. vulnificus in the Chesapeake Bay.

Keywords

Vibrio vulnificus hindcast Chesapeake Bay empirical habitat model