Abstract
Quantifying the long-term variability in wave conditions incident on a coastline is critical for predicting its resilience to future changes in the wave climate. In this study, a 40-year wave hindcast of the southern Indian Ocean has been created to assess the inter-annual variability and longer-term changes in the wave climate around Western Australia (WA) between 1970 and 2009. The model was validated against measurements from five wave buoys located along the WA coast. Changes in the mean annual significant wave height, 90th percentile wave height, peak period and mean wave direction were assessed, and the tracks of all wave events generating wave heights above 7 m were digitised and analysed for significant changes. Results show strong annual and inter-annual variability in the mean significant wave height, the 90th percentile wave height and the number of large events (wave height > 7 m) that impact the WA coastline. A significant positive trend in annual mean wave height was found in the southwest region of WA over the 40-year simulation. This appears to be due to an increase in intensity of the storm belt in the Southern Ocean which is associated with an increasing positive polarity in the Southern Annular Mode. However, no significant trends were found in the 90th percentile wave height or the number of large wave events impacting Western Australia. Although the number of large wave events in the southern Indian Ocean have increased, their potential to impact the coastal regions of Western Australia are reduced due to storm tracks being located further south, therefore balancing the number of large wave events reaching the WA coast.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ardhuin F, Marié L, Rascle N, Forget P, Roland A (2009) Observation and estimation of Lagrangian, Stokes, and Eulerian currents induced by wind and waves at the sea surface. J Phys Oceanogr 39(11):2820–2838. doi:10.1175/2009jpo4169.1
Coelho C, Silva R, Veloso-Gomes F, Taveira-Pinto F (2009) Potential effects of climate change on northwest Portuguese coastal zones. ICES J Mar Sci: J du Conseil 66(7):1497–1507. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp132
Dodet G, Bertin X, Taborda R (2010) Wave climate variability in the North-East Atlantic Ocean over the last six decades. Ocean Model 31(3–4):120–131. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2009.10.010
Fogt RL, Perlwitz J, Monaghan AJ, Bromwich DH, Jones JM, Marshall GJ (2009) Historical SAM variability. Part II: twentieth-century variability and trends from reconstructions, observations, and the IPCC AR4 models, vol 22, vol 20. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, ETATS-UNIS
Hemer MA (2010) Historical trends in Southern Ocean storminess: long-term variability of extreme wave heights at Cape Sorell, Tasmania. Geophys Res Lett 37. doi:10.1029/2010gl044595
Hemer MA, Church JA, Hunter JR (2010) Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the southern hemisphere. Int J Climatol 30(4):475–491. doi:10.1002/joc.1900
Hemer MA, Simmonds I, Keay K (2008) A classification of wave generation characteristics during large wave events on the Southern Australian margin. Cont Shelf Res 28(4–5):634–652. doi:10.1016/j.csr.2007.12.004
Hines KM, Bromwich DH, Marshall GJ (2000) Artificial surface pressure trends in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica. J Clim 13(22):3940–3952. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3940:ASPTIT>2.0.CO;2
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007 - The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press
Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds B, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(3):437–472
Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo JJ, Fiorino M, Potter GL (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83(11):1631–1643. doi:10.1175/bams-83-11-1631
Kistler R, Collins W, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Kalnay E, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Kanamitsu M, Kousky V, van den Dool H, Jenne R, Fiorino M (2001) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82(2):247–267. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<0247:TNNYRM>2.3.CO;2
Kushner PJ, Held IM, Delworth TL (2001) Southern hemisphere atmospheric circulation response to global warming. J Clim 14(10):2238–2249. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0001:SHACRT>2.0.CO;2
Lemm AJ, Hegge BJ, Masselink G (1999) Offshore wave climate, Perth (Western Australia), 1994–96. Mar Freshw Res 50(2):95–102. doi:10.1071/MF98081
Marshall GJ (2003) Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. J Clim 16(24):10
Masselink G, Pattiaratchi CB (2001) Characteristics of the sea breeze system in Perth, Western Australia, and its effect on the nearshore wave climate. J Coast Res 17(1):173–187
Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT., Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao Z-C (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp 747–845
Mori N, Yasuda T, Mase H, Tom T, Oku Y (2010) Projection of extreme wave climate change under global warming. Hydrol Res Lett 4:15–19
Pezza AB, Durrant T, Simmonds I, Smith I (2008) Southern hemisphere synoptic behavior in extreme phases of SAM, ENSO, sea ice extent, and Southern Australia rainfall. J Clim 21(21):5566–5584. doi:10.1175/2008jcli2128.1
Powell MD, Vickery PJ, Reinhold TA (2003) Reduced drag coefficient for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones. Nature 422(6929):279–283
Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan H-L, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Kistler R, Woollen J, Behringer D, Liu H, Stokes D, Grumbine R, Gayno G, Wang J, Hou Y-T, H-y C, Juang H-MH, Sela J, Iredell M, Treadon R, Kleist D, Delst PV, Keyser D, Derber J, Ek M, Meng J, Wei H, Yang R, Lord S, Hvd D, Kumar A, Wang W, Long C, Chelliah M, Xue Y, Huang B, Schemm J-K, Ebisuzaki W, Lin R, Xie P, Chen M, Zhou S, Higgins W, Zou C-Z, Liu Q, Chen Y, Han Y, Cucurull L, Reynolds RW, Rutledge G, Goldberg M (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 91:1015–1057
Smith WHF, Sandwell DT (1997) Global sea floor topography from satellite altimetry and ship depth soundings. Science 277(5334):1956–1962. doi:10.1126/science.277.5334.1956
Snodgrass FE, Groves GW, Hasselmann KF, Miller GR, Munk WH, Powers WH (1966) Propagation of ocean swell across the pacific. Philos Trans R Soc Lond A, Math Phys Sci 259(1103):431–497. doi:10.1098/rsta.1966.0022
Sterl A, Caires S (2005) Climatology, variability and extrema of ocean waves: the web-based KNMI/ERA-40 wave atlas. Int J Climatol 25(7):963–977. doi:10.1002/joc.1175
Stul T (2005) Physical characteristics of Perth beaches. University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia
Tolman HL (2003) Treatment of unresolved islands and ice in wind wave models. Ocean Model 5:219–231. doi:10.1016/s1463-5003(02)00040-9
Tolman HL (2009) User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III TM version 3.14. NOAA/NWS/NCEP/MMAB Technical Note 276
Wang X, Swail V (2006) Climate change signal and uncertainty in projections of ocean wave heights. Clim Dyn 26(2):109–126. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0080-x
Wang XL, Swail VR (2002) Trends of atlantic wave extremes as simulated in a 40-yr wave hindcast using kinematically reanalyzed wind fields. J Clim 15(9):1020–1035. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1020:TOAWEA>2.0.CO;2
Woolf DK, Challenor PG, Cotton PD (2002) Variability and predictability of the North Atlantic wave climate. J Geophys Res 107(C10):3145. doi:10.1029/2001jc001124
Young IR, Zieger S, Babanin AV (2011) Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science. doi:10.1126/science.1197219
Acknowledgements
We are grateful to the Western Australian Department of Transport for providing the wave buoy data and for National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for providing free access to the WW3 code and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. We would also like to thank Tanya Stul for her comments on an early draft of this paper and for many discussions regarding the results. This study was funded through the SIRF scholarship and the Western Australian Marine Science Institution.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Chari Pattiaratchi
This article is part of the Topical Collection on Physics of Estuaries and Coastal Seas 2010
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bosserelle, C., Pattiaratchi, C. & Haigh, I. Inter-annual variability and longer-term changes in the wave climate of Western Australia between 1970 and 2009. Ocean Dynamics 62, 63–76 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-011-0487-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-011-0487-3