Original Article

Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 15, Issue 4, pp 569-579

First online:

Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality

  • Kamal Kumar MurariAffiliated withIITB-Monash Research Academy, Indian Institute of Technology BombaySchool of Habitat Studies, Tata Institute of Social Sciences
  • , Subimal GhoshAffiliated withDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology BombayInterdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Email author 
  • , Anand PatwardhanAffiliated withInterdisciplinary Program in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology BombayShailesh J Mehta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
  • , Edoardo DalyAffiliated withDepartment of Civil Engineering, Monash University
  • , Kaustubh SalviAffiliated withDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay

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Abstract

Heat waves are expected to intensify around the globe in the future, with potential increase in heat stress and heat-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation measures. India has a high current exposure to heat waves, and with limited adaptive capacity, impacts of increased heat waves might be quite severe. This paper presents the first projections of future heat waves in India based on multiple climate models and scenarios for CMIP5 data. We find that heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlier in the year. Southern India, currently not influenced by heat waves, is expected to be severely affected by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections indicate that a sizable part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. In northern India, the average number of days with extreme heat stress condition during pre-monsoon hot season will reach 30. The intensification of heat waves might lead to severe heat stress and increased mortality.

Keywords

Heat wave Mortality CMIP5 Heat stress Adaptation Climate extremes