Regional Environmental Change

, Volume 15, Issue 4, pp 569–579

Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality

  • Kamal Kumar Murari
  • Subimal Ghosh
  • Anand Patwardhan
  • Edoardo Daly
  • Kaustubh Salvi
Original Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0660-6

Cite this article as:
Murari, K.K., Ghosh, S., Patwardhan, A. et al. Reg Environ Change (2015) 15: 569. doi:10.1007/s10113-014-0660-6

Abstract

Heat waves are expected to intensify around the globe in the future, with potential increase in heat stress and heat-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation measures. India has a high current exposure to heat waves, and with limited adaptive capacity, impacts of increased heat waves might be quite severe. This paper presents the first projections of future heat waves in India based on multiple climate models and scenarios for CMIP5 data. We find that heat waves are projected to be more intense, have longer durations and occur at a higher frequency and earlier in the year. Southern India, currently not influenced by heat waves, is expected to be severely affected by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections indicate that a sizable part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. In northern India, the average number of days with extreme heat stress condition during pre-monsoon hot season will reach 30. The intensification of heat waves might lead to severe heat stress and increased mortality.

Keywords

Heat waveMortalityCMIP5Heat stressAdaptationClimate extremes

Supplementary material

10113_2014_660_MOESM1_ESM.docx (168 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 167 kb)

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kamal Kumar Murari
    • 1
    • 2
  • Subimal Ghosh
    • 3
    • 4
  • Anand Patwardhan
    • 4
    • 5
  • Edoardo Daly
    • 6
  • Kaustubh Salvi
    • 3
  1. 1.IITB-Monash Research AcademyIndian Institute of Technology BombayMumbaiIndia
  2. 2.School of Habitat StudiesTata Institute of Social SciencesMumbaiIndia
  3. 3.Department of Civil EngineeringIndian Institute of Technology BombayPowai, MumbaiIndia
  4. 4.Interdisciplinary Program in Climate StudiesIndian Institute of Technology BombayMumbaiIndia
  5. 5.Shailesh J Mehta School of ManagementIndian Institute of Technology BombayMumbaiIndia
  6. 6.Department of Civil EngineeringMonash UniversityMelbourneAustralia