Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Regional Environmental Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Key studies supported by species-level data collection have provided early indications of the potential implications of unmitigated change for the ecosystems and biodiversity of southern Africa. These suggest a significant threat to biodiversity, both from changing bioclimatic suitability and changing atmospheric CO2 level that seems to affect the competitive balance between woody and herbaceous plants in the dominant savanna biome of this region. Modeling efforts suggest significant implications of unmitigated climate change for this region, but assumptions underpinning methods such as bioclimatic modeling must be recognized, some of which might lead to over estimates of the rate and extent of the potential impacts. General trends and level of coincidence between various types of studies do support a high degree of concern for a substantial portion of southern African biodiversity under unmitigated climate-change scenarios. The most significant changes in ecosystem structure (both increases and decreases in woody plant cover), and associated faunal diversity changes, are projected in the dominant savanna vegetation type in this region, while the most significant biodiversity loss is projected for the winter rainfall region. Follow-up work to detect early signs of climate change identify regions of high- and low-potential impacts, and experimental work to test some important hypotheses relating to the future evolution of climate-change impacts across the region are very few and urgently required.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Andrews P, O’Brien EM (2000) Climate, vegetation, and predictable gradients in mammal species richness in southern Africa. J Zool 251:205–231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bomhard B, Richardson DM, Donaldson JS, Hughes GO, Midgley GF, Raimondo DC, Rebelo AG, Rouget M, Thuiller W (2005) Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the red list status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic region, South Africa. Glob Chang Biol 11(9):1452–1468. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.00997.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bond WJ, Keeley JE (2005) Fire as a global ‘herbivore’: the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems. Trends Ecol Evol 20(7):387–394

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bond WJ, Midgley GF (2000) A proposed CO2-controlled mechanism of woody plant invasion in grasslands and savannas. Glob Chang Biol 6(8):865–869

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bond WJ, Van Wilgen BW (1996) Fire and plants, vol 14. Chapman and Hall, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Bond WJ, Midgley GF, Woodward FI (2003a) The importance of low atmospheric CO2 and fire in promoting the spread of grasslands and savannas. Glob Chang Biol 9(7):973–982

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bond WJ, Midgley GF, Woodward FI (2003b) What controls South African vegetation—climate or fire? S Afr J Bot 69(1):79–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Bond WJ, Woodward FI, Midgley GF (2005) The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire. New Phytol 165(2):525–537

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Botes A, McGeoch MA, Robertson HG, Niekerk A, Davids HP, Chown SL (2006) Ants, altitude and change in the northern Cape Floristic region. J Biogeogr 33(1):71–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Box EO (1981) Predicting physiognomic vegetation types with climate variables. Plant Ecology 45(2):127–139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Broennimann O, Thuiller W, Hughes G, Midgley GF, Alkemade JMR, Guisan A (2006) Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants’ vulnerability to global change? Glob Chang Biol 12(6):1079–1093. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01157.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brooks T, Balmford A, Burgess N, Fjelda J, Hansen LA, Moore JL, Rahbek C, Williams PH (2001) Toward a blueprint for conservation in Africa. Bioscience 51:613–624

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Carter TR, Parry ML, Harasawa H, Nishioka S (1994) IPCC technical guidelines for assessing impacts of climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO and UNEP, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Cowling RM, Rundel PW, Lamont BB, Arroyo MK, Arianoutsou M (1996) Plant diversity in Mediterranean-climate regions. Trends Ecol Evol 11(9):362–366

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Cramer W, Bondeau A, Woodward FI, Prentice IC, Betts RA, Brovkin V, Cox PM, Fisher V, Foley JA, Friend AD, Kucharik C, Lomas MR, Ramankutty N, Sitch S, Smith B, White A, Young-Molling C (2001) Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models. Glob Chang Biol 7(4):357–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • De Wit M, Stankiewicz J (2006) Changes in surface water supply across Africa with predicted climate change. Science 311(5769):1917–1921

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diaz HF, Hoerling MP, Eischeid JK (2001) ENSO variability, teleconnections and climate change. Int J Climatol 21(15):1845–1862

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eeley HAC, Lawes MJ, Piper SE (1999) The influence of climate change on the distribution of indigenous forest in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. J Biogeogr 26(3):595–617

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Engelbrecht FA, McGregor JL, Engelbrecht CJ (2009) Dynamics of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model climate-change signal over southern Africa. Int J Climatol 29:1013–1033

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erasmus BFN, Van Jaarsveld AS, Chown SL, Kshatriya M, Wessels KJ (2002) Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 8(7):679–693

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foden W, Midgley GF, Hughes G, Bond WJ, Thuiller W, Hoffman MT, Kaleme P, Underhill LG, Rebelo A, Hannah L (2007) A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags. Divers Distrib 13(5):645–653. doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00391.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glantz MH (2001) Currents of change: impacts of El Niño and La Niña on climate and society, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8(9):993–1009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol Modell 135(2–3):147–186

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamandawana H, Chanda R, Eckardt F (2008) Reappraisal of contemporary perspectives on climate change in southern Africa’s Okavango delta sub-region. J Arid Environ 72(9):1709–1720. doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2008.03.007

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hannah L, Midgley GF, Hughes G, Bomhard B (2005) The view from the Cape: extinction risk, protected areas and climate change. Bioscience 55:231–242

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hassan R, Scholes R, Ash N (eds) (2005) Ecosystems and human well-being—volume 1: current state & trends, vol 1. Island Press, Washington, DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins BR, Field R, Cornell HV, Currie DJ, Guegan JF, Kaufman DM, Kerr JT, Mittelbach GG, Oberdorff T, O’Brien EM, Porter EE, Turner JRG (2003) Energy, water, and broad-scale geographic patterns of species richness. Ecology 84:3105–3117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hewitson BC, Crane RG (2006) Consensus between GCM climate change projections with empirical downscaling: precipitation downscaling over South Africa. Int J Climatol 26:1315–1337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hulme M (ed) (1996) Climate change and Southern Africa. CRU/WWF, Norwich, UK, 103 p

  • Hulme M, Doherty R, Ngara T, New M, Lister D (2001) African climate change: 1900–2100. Clim Res 17(2):145–168

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, 2007a Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Parry M, Canziani O, Palutikof J, van der Linden P, Hanson C (eds) Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA

  • IPCC, 2007b Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor MMB, Miller HL (eds) Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA

  • Kgope BS, Midgley GF, Bond WJ, Woodward FI (2005) Evidence for a CO2 controlled mechanism to explain tree invasion of African savannas and adjacent grasslands. S Afr J Bot 71:267

    Google Scholar 

  • Kgope B, Bond WJ, Midgley GF (2010) Growth responses of African savanna trees implicate atmospheric [CO2] as a driver of past and current changes in savanna tree cover. Austral Ecol 35:451–463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lucht W, Schaphoff S, Erbrecht T, Heyder U, Cramer W (2006) Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change. Carbon Balance Manag 1(6):1–7

    Google Scholar 

  • Malcolm JR, Liu C, Neilson RP, Hansen L, Hannah LEE (2006) Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv Biol 20(2):538–548

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mason SJ (1996) Rainfall trends over the Lowveld of South Africa. Climatic Change 32:35–54

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • McClean CJ, Lovett JC, Küper W, Hannah L, Sommer JH, Barthlott W, Termansen M, Smith GF, Tokumine S, Taplin JRD (2005) African plant diversity and climate change. Ann Mo Bot Gard 92(2):139–152

    Google Scholar 

  • Meadows ME (2006) Global change and southern Africa. Geogr Res 44(2):135–145

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Midgley GF, Thuiller W (2005) Global environmental change and the uncertain fate of biodiversity. New Phytol 167(3):638–641

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Midgley GF, Thuiller W (2007) Could anthropogenic climate change threaten biodiversity in Namaqualand? J Arid Environ 70:615–628

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Midgley GF, van der Heyden F (1997) Growth form and function: perennial plants. In: Dean RJ, Milton SJ (eds) The Karoo: ecological patterns and processes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Midgley GF, Wand SJE, Pammenter N (1999) Nutrient and genotypic constraints on CO2-responsiveness: Photosynthetic regulation in congenerics of a nutrient-poor environment. J Exp Bot 50:533–542

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D, Rutherford MC, Powrie LW (2002) Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 11(6):445–451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Midgley GF, Hannah L, Millar D, Thuiller W, Booth A (2003) Developing regional and species-level assessments of climate change impacts on biodiversity in the Cape Floristic Region. Biol Conserv 112(1–2):87–97. doi:10.1016/S0006-3207(02)00414-7

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan JA, Lecain DR, Mosier AR, Milchunas DG (2001) Elevated CO2 enhances water relations and productivity and affects gas exchange in C-3 and C-4 grasses of the Colorado shortgrass steppe. Glob Chang Biol 7(4):451–466

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Motete N, Midgley GF, Pammenter N (2005) Impact of elevated CO2 on the phenology and canopy structure of a C4 grassland microcosm. S Afr J Bot 70(5):797–803

    Google Scholar 

  • Muntifering JR, Dickman AJ, Perlow LM, Hruska T, Ryan PG, Marker LL, Jeo RM (2006) Managing the matrix for large carnivores: a novel approach and perspective from cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) habitat suitability modelling. Anim Conserv 9:103–112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Musil CF, Schmiedel U, Midgley GF (2005) Lethal effects of experimental warming approximating a future climate scenario on southern African quartz-field succulents: a pilot study. New Phytol 165(2):539–547

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Myers N, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GAB, Kent J (2000) Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403(6772):853–858

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Neilson RP, Pitelka LF, Solomon AM, Nathan R, Midgley GF, Fragoso JMV, Lischke H, Thompson K (2005) Forecasting regional to global plant migration in response to climate change. Bioscience 55(9):749–759

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nemani RR, Keeling CD, Hashimoto H, Jolly WM, Piper SC, Tucker CJ, Myneni RB, Running SW (2003) Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982 to 1999. Science 300(5625):1560–1563

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson S (2001) Climatic and environmental change in Africa during the last two centuries. Clim Res 17:123–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ogutu JO, Owen-Smith N (2003) ENSO, rainfall and temperature influences on extreme population declines among African savanna ungulates. Ecol Lett 6(5):412–419

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Perks LA, Schulze RE, Kiker GA, Horan MJC, Maharaj M (2000) Preparation of climate data and information for application in impact studies of climate change over southern Africa. In: Kiker G (ed) Climate change impacts in Southern Africa. Report to the National Climate Change Committee Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria

    Google Scholar 

  • Pollack HN, Huang S, Shen P-Y (1998) Climate change record in subsurface temperatures: a global perspective. Science 282(5387):279–281

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Richardson DM, Bond WJ, Dean RJ, Higgins SI, Midgley GF, Milton SJ, Powrie LW, Rutherford MC, Samways MJ, Schulze RE (2000) Invasive alien species and global change: A South African perspective. In: Mooney HA, Hobbs R (eds) Invasive species in a changing world. Island Press, California, pp 303–350

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodrigues ASL, Andelman SJ, Bakarr MI, Boitani L, Brooks TM, Cowling RM, Fishpool LDC, da Fonseca GAB, Gaston KJ, Hoffmann M, Long JS, Marquet PA, Pilgrim JD, Pressey RL, Schipper J, Sechrest W, Stuart SN, Underhill LG, Waller RW, Watts MEJ, Yan X (2004) Effectiveness of the global protected area network in representing species diversity. Nature 428:640–643

    Google Scholar 

  • Root TL, MacMynowski DP, Mastrandrea MD, Schneider SH (2005) Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: joint attribution. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102(21):7465–7469

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rutherford MC (1999) Categorization of biomes. In: Cowling RM, Richardson DM, Pierce SM (eds) Vegetation of Southern Africa. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Rutherford MC, Powrie LW, Schulze RE (1999) Climate change in conservation areas of South Africa and its potential impact on floristic composition: a first assessment. Divers Distrib 5:253–262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rutherford MC, Midgley GF, Bond WJ, Powrie LW, Roberts R, Allsopp J (eds) (2000) Plant biodiversity: vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Climate change impacts in Southern Africa. Report to the National Climate Change Committee. Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, Pretoria

    Google Scholar 

  • Sala OE, Chapin FS, Armesto JJ, Berlow E, Bloomfield J, Dirzo R, Huber-Sanwald E, Huenneke LF, Jackson RB, Kinzig A, Leemans R, Lodge DM, Mooney HA, Oesterheld M, Poff NL, Sykes MT, Walker BH, Walker M, Wall DH (2000) Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 287(5459):1770–1774

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sankaran M, Hanan NP, Scholes RJ, Ratnam J, Augustine DJ, Cade BS, Gignoux J, Higgins SILRX, Ludwig F, Ardo J, Banyikwa F, Bronn A, Bucini G, Caylor KK, Coughenour MB, Diouf A, Ekaya W, Feral CJ, February EC, Frost PGH, Hiernaux P, Hrabar H, Metzger KL, Prins HHT, Ringrose S, Sea W, Tews J, Worden J, Zambatis N (2005) Determinants of woody cover in African savannas. Nature 438(7069):846–849

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schaphoff S, Lucht W, Gerten D, Sitch S, Cramer W, Prentice IC (2006) Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections. Climatic Change 74(1–3):97–122

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Scholes RJ, Biggs R (eds) (2004) Ecosystem services in southern African: a regional assessment. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria

  • Scholes RJ, Biggs R (2005) A biodiversity intactness index. Nature 434(7029):45–49

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schulze RE (ed) (2005) Climate change and water resources in Southern Africa: studies on scenarios, impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation. Water Research Commission report 1430/1/05. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, Republic of South Africa

    Google Scholar 

  • Semazzi FH, Song Y (2001) A GCM study of climate change induced by deforestation in Africa. Clim Res 17(2):169–182

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simmons RE, Barnard P, Dean WRJ, Midgley GF, Thuiller W, Hughes G (2004) Climate change and birds: perspectives and prospects from southern Africa. Ostrich 75(4):295–308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sirami C, Seymour C, Midgley GF, Barnard PB (2009) The impact of shrub encroachment on savanna bird diversity from local to regional scale. Divers Distrib 15:948–957

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Levis S, Lucht W, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Venevsky S (2003) Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Glob Chang Biol 9(2):161–185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stock WD, Ludwig F, Morrow C, Midgley GF, Wand SJE, Allsopp N, Bell TL (2005) Long-term effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on species composition and productivity of a southern African C4 dominated grassland in the vicinity of a CO2 exhalation. Plant Ecol 178(2):211–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stokes S, Thomas DSG, Washington R (1997) Multiple episodes of aridity in southern Africa since the last interglacial period. Nature 388:154–158

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Thomas DSG, Leason HC (2005) Dunefield activity response to climate variability in the southwest Kalahari. Geomorphology 64(1–2):117–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thuiller W, Broennimann O, Hughes G, Alkemade JRM, Midgley GF, Corsi F (2006a) Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions. Glob Chang Biol 12(3):424–440. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01115.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thuiller W, Midgley GF, Hughes GO, Bomhard B, Drew G, Rutherford MC, Woodward FI (2006b) Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia. Glob Chang Biol 12(5):759–776. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01140.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thuiller W, Midgley GF, Rouget M, Cowling RM (2006c) Predicting patterns of plant species richness in megadiverse South Africa. Ecography 29(5):733–744

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tyson PD, Gatebe CK (2001) The atmosphere, aerosols, trace gases and biogeochemical change in southern Africa: a regional integration. S Afr J Sci 97:106–118

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tyson PD, Preston-Whyte RA (2000) The weather and climate of South Africa. Oxford University Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Wand SJE, Midgley GF, Stock WD (2000) Growth responses to elevated CO2 in NADP-ME, NAD-ME and PCK C4 grasses and a C3 grass from Africa. Aust J Plant Physiol 28:13–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Wand SJE, Midgley GF, Stock WD (2002) Response to elevated CO2 from a natural spring in C4-dominated grassland depends on seasonal phenology. Afr J Range Forage Sci 19:81–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Warburton M, Schulze RE, Maharaj M (2005) Is South Africa’s temperature changing? An analysis of trends from daily records, 1950–2000. Climate Change and Water Resources in Southern Africa: Studies on Scenarios, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation. Water Research Commission, Pretoria, RSA. http://www.wrc.org.za/downloads/report%20lists/integrated%20resources.htm

  • Wigley BJ, Bond WJ, Hoffman MT (2010) Thicket expansion in a South African savanna under divergent land use: local vs. global drivers? Glob Chang Biol 16:964–976

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams P, Hannah L, Andelman S, Midgley GF, Araujo M, Hughes G, Manne L, Martinez-Meyer E, Pearson R (2005) Planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conserv Biol 19(4):1063–1074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodward FI, Lomas MR (2004) Simulating vegetation processes along the Kalahari transect. Glob Chang Biol 10(3):383–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Change and BioAdaptation Division, South African National Biodiversity Institute, Claremont 7735, P/Bag X7, Cape Town, South Africa

    Guy F. Midgley

  2. Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, UMR-CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, France

    Wilfried Thuiller

Authors
  1. Guy F. Midgley
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wilfried Thuiller
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Guy F. Midgley.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Midgley, G.F., Thuiller, W. Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change. Reg Environ Change 11 (Suppl 1), 127–135 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0191-8

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0191-8

Keywords

Search

Navigation