Ecosystems

, Volume 1, Issue 5, pp 457–463

Use of Complex Adaptive Systems for Modeling Global Change

  • Marco  Janssen

DOI: 10.1007/s100219900041

Cite this article as:
Janssen, M. Ecosystems (1998) 1: 457. doi:10.1007/s100219900041

ABSTRACT

Global modeling has been used for decades to assess the possible futures of humanity and the global environment. However, these models do not always satisfactorily include the adaptive characteristics of systems. In this article, a general approach is used to simulate change and transition at a macrolevel due to adaptation at a microlevel. Tools from complex adaptive systems research are used to simulate the microlevel and consequently determine parameter values of the equation-based macrolevel model. Two case studies that applied this approach are reviewed. The first study assessed the efficacy of efforts to control malaria, whereas the second study used an integrated model to construct climate change scenarios by using various possible views on the nature of the climate system.

Key words: complex adaptive systems; global change; climate change; malaria; multiagent modeling; adaptation; coevolution; genetic algorithms. 

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag New York Inc. 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • Marco  Janssen
    • 1
  1. 1.Bureau for Environmental Assessment (MNV), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands NL