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Intercomparison of CMIP5 and CMIP3 simulations of the 20th century maximum and minimum temperatures over India and detection of climatic trends

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Abstract

Climate change impact assessment has become one of the most important subjects of the research community because of the recent increase in frequency of extreme events and changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of climate. This paper analyses the ability of 46 coupled climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP5 and CMIP3). The performance of each climate model was assessed based on its skills in simulating the current seasonal cycles (monthly) of both maximum temperature and minimum temperature (Tmax, Tmin) over India. The performance measures such as coefficient of correlation (Skill_r), root mean square error (Skill_rmse), and the skill in simulating the observed probability density function (Skill_s) are mainly employed for evaluation of the simulated monthly seasonal cycle. A new metric called Skill_All which is an intersection of the above three metrics has been defined for the first time. A notable enhancement of Skill_All for CMIP5 vis-a-vis CMIP3 is observed. Further, three best CMIP5 models each for Tmax and Tmin were selected. The methodology employed in this study for model assessment is implemented for the first time for India, which establishes a robust foundation for the climate impact assessment study. The seasonal trends in Tmax and Tmin were analyzed over all the temperature homogenous regions of India for different time slots during the 20th century. Significant trends in Tmin can be seen during most of the seasons over the entire Indian region during last four decades. This establishes the signature of climate change over most parts of India.

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Acknowledgment

This work is partly supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India (MOES/ATMOS/PP-IX/09). We acknowledge the assistance of the World Climate Research Program’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model outputs. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provided coordinating support and led to the development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We also thank IMD for gridded temperature dataset.

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India

    P. Sonali & D. Nagesh Kumar

  2. Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India

    P. Sonali

  3. Centre for Earth Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India

    D. Nagesh Kumar

  4. Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India

    Ravi S. Nanjundiah

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Sonali, P., Kumar, D.N. & Nanjundiah, R.S. Intercomparison of CMIP5 and CMIP3 simulations of the 20th century maximum and minimum temperatures over India and detection of climatic trends. Theor Appl Climatol 128, 465–489 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1716-3

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