Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Evidence of climate change within the Adamello Glacier of Italy

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

We analyze a daily series of rainfall, snowfall, air temperature, and snow water equivalent at fixed dates from 40 high-altitude stations on the Adamello Glacier area (Italian Alps), for the period 1965–2007. Purposes of the study are (1) to investigate significant variation in time, (2) to evaluate effect of temperature changes on cryospheric water cycle, and (3) to evaluate underlying climate patterns and the most significant variables for climate change studies. We detect the presence of a trend using linear regression, moving window average and Mann Kendall test. Linear dependence of water related variables on temperatures is assessed. We find substantially unchanged atmospheric water input along with increasing temperature and rainfall, decreasing snowfall and snow water equivalent at thaw, and shortening of snow cover extent and duration. We carry out a principal components analysis which highlights patterns of precipitation distribution resulting from local temperature and external forcing. A set of the most representative variables for climate and glacier studies is then assessed. A comparison with three nearby Southern Alpine glacierized areas in Italy and Switzerland shows substantial agreement. In spite of the relative shortness of the series, the results here are of interest and can be used as a benchmark for climate change impact assessment for the Adamello Glacier area and southern Alps.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alpert P, Osetinsky I, Ziv B, Shafir H (2004) Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems: application to the eastern Mediterranean climate change. Int J Climatol 24:1001–1011

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arora VK, Boer GJ (2001) Effects of simulated climate change on the hydrology of major river basins. J Geophys Res 104(D12):3335–3348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baeriswyl PA, Rebetez M (1997) Regionalization of precipitation in Switzerland by means of principal components analysis. Theor App Climatol 58:31–41

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bardossy A (1997) Downscaling from GCMs to local climate through stochastic linkages. J Environ Manage 49:7–17

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438(17):303–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baroni C, Carton A (1987) Geomorfologia della Valle dell’Avio (Gruppo dell’Adamello) [Gemorphology of the Avio Valley]. Nat Brescia 23:3–48

    Google Scholar 

  • Barry RG (2003) Mountain cryospheric studies and the WCRP climate and cryosphere (CliC) project. J Hydrol 177–181

  • Bates BC, Charles SP, Hughes JP (1998) Stochastic downscaling of numerical climate model simulations. Environ Model Softw 13:325–331

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Begert M, Schlegel T, Kichhofer W (2005) Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000. Int J Climatol 25:65–80 2005

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M (1997) Variations of snow depth and duration in the Swiss Alps over the last 50 years: links to changes in large-scale climatic forcings. Clim Change 36:281–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Beniston M, Keller F, Goyette S (2003) Snow pack in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions: an empirical approach for climate impacts studies. Theor Appl Climatol 74:19–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bianchi Janetti E, Bocchiola D, Rosso R (2008) L’influenza del cambiamento climatico sulla risorsa idrica nivale: il caso del Parco dell’Adamello Lombardo [Influence of climate change on snow water resources: the case study of Adamello Lombardo Park (in Italian with English abstract)]. Neve Valanghe 63:66–73. Available at: http://www.aineva.it/pubblica/neve63/7_bocchiola.html. 1 August 2009

  • Bocchiola D, Rosso R (2007a) Application of a regional approach for hazard mapping at an avalanche site in northern Italy. Adv Geosci 14:201–209

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bocchiola D, Rosso R (2007b) The distribution of daily snow water equivalent in the Central Italian Alps. Adv Water Resour 30:135–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bocchiola D, Bianchi Janetti E, Gorni E, Marty C, Sovilla B (2008) Regional evaluation of three day snow depth frequency curves for Switzerland. NHESS 8:685–705

    Google Scholar 

  • Bocchiola D, Medagliani M, Rosso R (2009) Use of a regional approach for long term simulation of snow avalanche regime: a case study in the Italian Alps. Arct Antarct Alp Res 41(3):16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bohr GS, Aguado E (2001) Use of April 1st SWE measurements as estimates of peak seasonal snowpack and total cold-season precipitation. Water Resour Res 37(1):51–60

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Boroneant C, Plaut G, Giorgi F, Bi X (2006) Extreme precipitation over the Maritime Alps and associated weather regimes simulated by a regional climate model: present-day and future climate scenarios. Theor Appl Climatol 86:81–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braun LN, Weber M, Schulz M (2000) Consequences of climate change for runoff from Alpine regions. Ann Glaciol 31:19–25

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brinkmann WAR (1999) Application of non-hierarchically clustered circulation components to surface weather conditions: Lake Superior basin winter temperatures theor. Appl Climatol 63:41–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Nanni T (2000) Variations of temperature and precipitation in Italy from 1866 to 1995. Adv Water Resour 65:165–174

    Google Scholar 

  • Bultot F, Gellens F, Schadler B, Spreafico M (1994) Effects of climate change on snow accumulation and melting in the Broye catchment (CH). Clim Change 28(4):339–363

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cannone N, Sgorbati S, Guglielmin M (2007) Unexpected impacts of climate change on alpine vegetation. Front Ecol Environ 5(7):360–364

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cannone N, Diolaiuti G, Guglielmin M, Smiraglia C (2008) Accelerating climate change impacts on alpine glacier forefield ecosystems in the European Alps. Ecol Appl 18(3):637–648

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Catasta G, Smiraglia C (1993) The mass balance of a cirque glacier in the Italian Alps (Ghiacciaio della Sforzellina, Ortles-Cevedale group). J Glaciol 39:87–90

    Google Scholar 

  • Chiew FHS, McMahon TA (1993) Detection of trend or change in annual flow of Australian rivers. Int J Climatol 13:643–653

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cislaghi M, De Michele C, Ghezzi A, Rosso R (2005) Statistical assessment of trends and oscillations in rainfall dynamics: analysis of long daily Italian series. Atmos Res 77:188–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CGI (Comitato Glaciologico Italiano) (1914–1977) Campagne glaciologiche. Bollettino del comitato glaciologico Italiano, Series I and II, Nos. 1–25, CGI, Torino, Italy

  • CGI (Comitato Glaciologico Italiano) (1978–2005) Campagne glaciologiche. Geografia fisica e dinamica quaternaria, Nos. 1–23, CGI, Torino, Italy

  • Citterio M, Diolaiuti G, Smiraglia C, D'agata C, Carnielli T, Stella G, Siletto GB (2007) The fluctuations of Italian glaciers during the last century: a contribution to knowledge about Alpine glacier changes. Geograf Annal 89(A3):164–182

    Google Scholar 

  • Citterio M, Diolaiuti G, Smiraglia C, Verza GP, Meraldi E (2007b) Initial results from the Automatic Weather Station (AWS) on the ablation tongue of Forni Glacier (Upper Valtellina, Italy). Geogr Fis Dinam Quat 30:141–151

    Google Scholar 

  • Clausen B, Biggs BJF (2000) Flow variables for ecological studies in temperate streams: grouping based on covariance. J Hydrol 237:184–197

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coughlan JC, Running SW (1997) Regional ecosystem simulation: a general model for simulating snow accumulation and melt in mountainous terrain. Landsc Ecol 12:119–136

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D’agata C, Pelfini M, Diolaiuti G, Smiraglia C (2002) I GIS come strumento di analisi della cartografia storica per lo studio delle variazioni areali dei ghiacciai alpini. l’esempio del ghiacciaio dei Forni (Alpi centrali) [GISs as tools for analysis of cartography of alpine glaciers: the case of Forni Glacier (Central Alps)]. In: “Atti 6°Conferenza Nazionale Asita – Geomatica Per L’ambiente, Il Territorio E Il Patrimonio Culturale, Perugia, Italy, 5–8 Novembre 2002, vol. I, pp 959–964

  • De Michele C, Montanari A, Rosso R (1998) The effect of non-stationarity on the evaluation of critical design storms. Water Sci Tech 37(11):187–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diolaiuti G, Smiraglia C, Reynaud L, D'agata C, Pavan M (2002) Relation entre les bilans de masse de la Sforzellina et ceux des autres glaciers en Europe: influence des facteurs localisation géographique et taille du glacier. La Houille Blanche 6/7:1–5

  • Drogue G et al (2004) Simulating the spatio-temporal variability of streamflow response to climate change scenarios in a mesoscale basin. J Hydrol 293:255–269

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erschbamer B (1989) Vegetation on avalanche paths in the Alps. Vegetatio 80:139–146

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fiorese G, Gatto M, Ranci Ortigosa G, De Leo G (2005) Scenari futuri di impatto dei cambiamenti climatici globali tramite l’applicazione di modelli di vocazionalità faunistica ad ungulati alpini [Future scenarios of climate change impact using faunistic suitability models for Alpine Ungulates] (In Italian). Proceedings: 15th meeting of the Italian Ecological Society. Available online at: http://www.xvcongresso.societaitalianaecologia.org/articles/

  • Gan TY (1998) Hydroclimatic trends and possible climatic warming in the Canadian prairies. Water Resour Res 34(11):3009–3015

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gangopadhyay S, Clark M (2005) Statistical downscaling using K-nearest neighbors. Water Resour Res 41, W02024. doi:10.1029/2004wr003444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gellens D, Roulins E (1998) Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios. J Hydrol 210:242–258

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gondor C et al (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim Dyn 16(2–3):147–168

    Google Scholar 

  • Gottfried M, Pauli H, Reiter K, Grabherr G (1999) A fine scaled predictive model for changes in species distribution patterns of high mountain plants induced by climate warming. Divers Distrib 5:241–252

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hagg W, Braun L (2005) The influence of glacier retreat on water yield from high mountain areas: comparison of Alps and central Asia. In: De Jong C, Collins D, Ranzi R, (eds) Climate and hydrology of mountain areas, vol 18, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 263–275 pp

  • Hirsch RM, Slack JR (1984) Non-parametric trend test for seasonal data with serial dependence. Water Resour Res 20(6):727–732

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huth R (2000) A circulation classification scheme applicable in GCM studies. Theor Appl Climatol 67:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (2000) Special report on emission scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jansson P, Hock R, Schneider T (2003) The concept of glacier storage: a review. J Hydrol 282(2003):116–129

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang T, Su B, Hartmann H (2007) Temporal and spatial trends of precipitation and river flow in the Yangtze River Basin, 1961–2000. Geomorphology 85:143–154

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juen I, Kaser G, Georges C (2007) Modelling observed and future runoff from a glacierized tropical catchment (Cordillera Blanca, Perú). Glob Planet Change 59:37–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kang B, Ramírez JA (2007) Response of streamflow to weather variability under climate change in the Colorado Rockies. J Hydrol Eng 12(1):63–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keller FG, Goyette S, Beniston M (2005) Sensitivity analysis of snow cover to climate change scenarios and their impact on plant habitats in Alpine terrain. Clim Change 72(3):299–319

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1975) Rank correlation methods. Oxford Univ Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Klok EJ (2004) Modelled climate sensitivity of the mass balance of Morteratschgletscher and its dependence on albedo parameterization. Int J Climatol 24(2):231–245

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Klok EJ, Oerlemans J (2002) Model study of the spatial distribution of the energy and mass balance of Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland. J Glaciol 48(163):505–518

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kottegoda N, Rosso R (1997) Statistics, probability and reliability for civil and environmental engineers. Mc Graw Hill, New York

  • Kulakowski D, Rixen C, Bebi P (2006) Changes in forest structure and in the relative importance of climatic stress as a result of suppression of avalanche disturbances. For Ecol Manage 223:66–74

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laternser M (2002) Snow and avalanche climatology of Switzerland. Diss. No. 14493, ETH, Zurich. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=14493

  • Laternser M, Schneebeli M (2003) Long-term snow climate trends of the Swiss Alps (1931–99). Int J Climatol 23:733–750

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR (1994) Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948–88. J Clim 7:586–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Littmann T (2000) An empirical classification of weather types in the Mediterranean Basin and their interrelation with rainfall. Theor Appl Climatol 66:161–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Hayakawab N, Lub M, Dongc S, Yuan J (2003) Hydrological and geocryological response of winter streamflow to climate warming in Northeast China. Cold Reg Sci Technol 37:15–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maragno D, Diolaiuti, G, D’agata C, Mihalcea C, Bocchiola D, Bianchi Janetti E, Riccardi A, Smiraglia C (2009) New evidence from Italy (Adamello Group, Lombardy) for analysing the ongoing decline of Alpine glaciers, Geogr Fis Dinam Quatern 32:31–39

    Google Scholar 

  • McGlynn BL, McDonnell JJ, Shanleyb JB, Kendall C (1999) Riparian zone flowpath dynamics during snow melt in a small headwater catchment. J Hydrol 222:75–92

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mearns LO, Giorgi F, McDaniel L, Shields C (1995) Analysis of daily variability of precipitation in a nested regional climate model: comparison with observations and doubled CO2 results. Glob Planet Change 10:55–78

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michailidou C, Maheras P, Arseni-Papadimititriou A, Kolyva-Machera F, Anagnostopoulou C. (2009a) A study of weather types at Athens and Thessaloniki and their relationship to circulation types for the cold-wet period, part I: two-step cluster analysis. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0057-x

  • Michailidou C, Maheras P, Arseni-Papadimititriou A, Kolyva-Machera F, Anagnostopoulou C (2009b) A study of weather types at Athens and Thessaloniki and their relationship to circulation types for the cold-wet period, part II: discriminant analysis. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0058-9

  • Nemec J, Huybrechts J, Rybak O, Oerlemans J (2009) Reconstruction of the annual balance of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since 1865, Ann Glaciol 50:126–134

    Google Scholar 

  • Oerlemans J (2000) Analysis of a 3 year meteorological record from the ablation zone of Morteratschgletscher, Switzerland: energy and mass balance. J Glaciol 46(155):571–579

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oerlemans J (2007) Estimating response times of Vadret da Morteratsch, Vadret da Palù, Briksdalsbreen and Nigardsbreen from their length records. J Glaciol 53(182):357–362

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ohlendorf C, Niessenn F, Weissert H (1997) Glacial Varve thickness and 127 years of instrumental climate data: a comparison. Clim Change 36:391–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paul F, Kääb A, Maisch M, Kellenberger T, Haeberli W (2004) Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data. Geophys Res Letters 31, L21402. doi:10.1029/2004GL020816

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ranzi R, Grossi G, Bacchi B (1999) Ten years of monitoring areal snow pack in the Southern Alps using NOAA-AVHRR imagery, ground measurements and hydrological data. Hydrol Process 13:2079–2095

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rebetez M, Reinhard M (2008) Monthly air temperature trends in Switzerland 1901–2000 and 1975–2004. Theor Appl Climatol 91:27–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rohrer MB, Braun LN, Lang H (1994) Long term records of snow cover water equivalent in the Swiss Alps: 1. analysis. Nordic Hydrol 25:53–64

    Google Scholar 

  • Rossi GC, Belloni S, Diolaiuti G, Smiraglia C (2000) Variations du bilan de masse dans les glaciers et prédicteurs climatiques: application aux glaciers du Groupe Ortles-Cevedale. La Houille Blanche 5:87–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rotach MW, Marinucci MR, Wild M, Tschuck P, Ohmura A, Beniston M (1997) Nested regional simulation of climate change over the Alps for the scenario of a doubled greenhouse forcing. Theor Appl Climatol 57:209–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schneeberger C, Blatter H, Abe-Ouchi A, Wilda M (2003) Modelling changes in the mass balance of glaciers of the northern hemisphere for a transient 2xCO2 scenario. J Hydrol 282:145–163

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scherrer SC, Appenzeller C, Laternser M (2004) Trends in Swiss Alpine snow days: the role of local- and large-scale climate variability. Geophys Res Lett 31, L13215. doi:10.1029/2004GL020255

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seidou O, Ouarda TBMJ (2007) Recursion-based multiple changepoint detection in multiple linear regression and application to river stream flows. Water Resour Res 43, W07404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seiz G, Foppa N (2007) National climate observing system (GCOS Switzerland). Publication of the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss and ProClim, Geneva, 92 pp

  • Simaityte J, Bocchiola D, Augutis J, Rosso R (2008) Use of a snowmelt model for weekly flood forecast for a major reservoir in Lithuania. Ann Glaciol, 49, 498162

    Google Scholar 

  • Singh P, Kumar N (1997) Impact assessment of climate change on the hydrological response of a snow and glacier melt runoff dominated Himalayan river. J Hydrol 193:316–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Skaugen T (1999) Estimating the mean areal snow water equivalent by integration in time and space. Hydrol Process 13:2051–2066

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smiraglia C (1989) The medial moraines of Ghiacciaio dei Forni, Valtellina, Italy: morphology and sedimentology. J Glaciol 35(119):81–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smiraglia C, Diolaiuti G, D’Agata C, Carnielli T (2004) Technical report of the regional project: evaluation of the Lombardy Glacier resource. University of Milan Press, Milan, Italy

  • Spreitzhofer G (2000) On the characteristics of heavy multiple-day snowfalls in the Eastern Alps. Nat Hazards 21:35–53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stefan HG, Fang X (1997) Simulated climate change effects on ice and snow covers on lakes in a temperate region. Cold Reg Sci Technol 25:137–152

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Theurillat JP, Guisan A (2001) Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Clim Change 50:77–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Uehlinger U, Maisch M, Rothenbuhler C, Zah R, (2003) Val Roseg: a high Alpine catchment, CHAPTER 1. In: Ward J V, Uehlinger U (eds) Ecology of a glacial flood plain. Kluwer, Dordrcht, The Netherlands, 255 pp

  • Walsh KJE, McGregor JL (1995) January and July climate simulations over the Australian region using a limited-area model. J Climate 8(10):2387–2403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang W, Van Gelder PHAJM, Vrijling JK (2005) Trend and stationarity analysis for streamflow processes of rivers in western Europe in the 20th century. Proceedings: IWA International Conference on Water Economics, Statistics, and Finance Rethymno, Greece, 8–10 July 2005

  • Wood F (1988) Global alpine glacier trends 1960s to 1980s. Arct Antarct Alp Res 20(4):404–413

    Google Scholar 

  • Wüthrich C, Begert M, Scherrer SC, Croci-Maspoli M, Appenzeller C, Weingartner R (2008) Analyses of newly digitised snow series over the last 100 years + in Switzerland. In: Abstract Volume 6, abstract no. 6.29, 6th Swiss Geoscience Meeting Lugano, 21–23 November 2008

  • Yu Z et al (1999) Simulating the river basin response to atmospheric forcing by linking a mesoscale meteorological model and hydrologic model system. J Hydrol 218:72–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Wang CY (2002) Applicability of pre-whitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resour Res 38(6):1068. doi:10.1029/2001WR000861

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Vincent LA, Hogg WD, Niitsoo A (2000) Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmos Ocean 38(3):395–429

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The present paper reports work carried out under the umbrella of the CARIPANDA project, funded by the CARIPLO foundation of Italy (http://www.parcoadamello.it/progetti/caripanda.htm) under the direction of the ADAMELLO Park authority, which is here acknowledged also for supporting with logistic aid. ENEL Produzione is acknowledged for providing snow and precipitation data from their stations and for helping with logistic aid. The research presented in the present paper was also partially supported by the European Community, through the EU projects AWARE (EC contract 012257), and IRASMOS (EC contract 018412).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Deparment I.I.A.R., Politecnico di Milano, C.I.M.I. Section, 32 Leonardo da Vinci Sq., 20133, Milano, Italy

    Daniele Bocchiola

  2. Earth Science Department, Università degli Studi di Milano, Mangiagalli 34, Milano, Italy

    Guglielmina Diolaiuti

Authors
  1. Daniele Bocchiola
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Guglielmina Diolaiuti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Daniele Bocchiola.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Bocchiola, D., Diolaiuti, G. Evidence of climate change within the Adamello Glacier of Italy. Theor Appl Climatol 100, 351–369 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0186-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-009-0186-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation