Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics

, Volume 76, Issue 3, pp 183–202

Analysis and modeling of a tropical-like cyclonein the Mediterranean Sea

Authors

  • R. J. Reed
    •  Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
  • Y.-H. Kuo
    •  National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
  • M. D. Albright
    •  Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
  • K. Gao
    •  Hongzhou University, Hongzhou, P. R. China
  • Y.-R. Guo
    •  National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
  • W. Huang
    •  National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

DOI: 10.1007/s007030170029

Cite this article as:
Reed, R., Kuo, Y., Albright, M. et al. Meteorol Atmos Phys (2001) 76: 183. doi:10.1007/s007030170029

Summary

The storm formed over the warm waters between Sicily and Libya in a region of weak flow ahead of a cold, upper-level trough. During its 5-day lifetime it moved erratically before dissipating off the Turkish coast. As the storm developed, it diminished in size, assuming a hurricane-like appearance in satellite imagery. Ships near the vortex center reported near-hurricane force winds.

An attempt to simulate the storm development with a state-of-the-art mesoscale model met with mixed success. The most serious errors occurred after the initial deepening when the predicted track departed substantially from the observed and the contraction of the storm to mesoscale dimension was missed. A number of forward and adjoint sensitivity experiments were conducted to identify factors influencing the development and to explore ways of improving the prediction. The most realistic prediction was achieved by implanting a vortex, in the manner commonly done in tropical cyclone prediction, at an early stage in the storm’s history and by using, in addition, adjoint sensitivity to further modify the initial conditions.

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Wien 2001