Summary
Over the past three decades, the sea-surface temperatures of the lower latitudes of the North Atlantic basin have increased while the lower-tropospheric temperatures show no upward trend. This differential warming of the atmosphere may have a destabilizing effect that could influence the development and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). In this investigation, we find that in general, TC intensification (a) is higher during the daytime period and during the later months of the storm season, (b) tends to be higher in the western portion of the North Atlantic basin, and (c) is not explained by current month or antecedent SSTs. Any changes associated with warming of the surface compared to a smaller temperature rise in the lower-troposphere (and resultant changes in atmospheric stability) have not produced detectable impacts on intensification rates of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
JJ Baik JS Paek (2001) ArticleTitleRelationship between vertical wind shear and typhoon intensity change, and development three-predictor intensity prediction model J Meteor Soc Japan 79 695–700 Occurrence Handle10.2151/jmsj.79.695
LF Bosart CS Velden WE Bracken J Molinari PG Black (2000) ArticleTitleEnvironmental influences on the rapid intensification of hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico Mon Wea Rev 128 322–352 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0322:EIOTRI>2.0.CO;2
SP Browner WL Woodley CG Griffith (1977) ArticleTitleDiurnal oscillation of area of cloudiness associated with tropical storms Mon Wea Rev 105 856–864 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1977)105<0856:DOOTAO>2.0.CO;2
J Callaghan RK Smith (1998) ArticleTitleThe relationship between maximum surface wind speeds and central pressure in tropical cyclones Austr Meteorol Mag 47 191–202
RS Cerveny LE Newman (2000) ArticleTitleClimatological relationships between tropical cyclones and rainfall Mon Wea Rev 128 3329–3336 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<3329:CRBTCA>2.0.CO;2
JR Christy RW Spencer WD Braswell (2000) ArticleTitleMSU tropospheric temperatures: dataset construction and radiosonde comparisons J Atmos Ocean Technol 17 1153–1170 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0426(2000)017<1153:MTTDCA>2.0.CO;2
M DeMaria J Kaplan (1994) ArticleTitleSea-surface temperature and the maximum intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones J Climate 7 1324–1334 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1324:SSTATM>2.0.CO;2
M DeMaria JJ Baik J Kaplan (1993) ArticleTitleUpper-level eddy angular-momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change J Atmos Sci 50 1133–1147 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0469(1993)050<1133:ULEAMF>2.0.CO;2
LM Druyan P Lonergan T Eichler (1999) ArticleTitleA GCM investigation of global warming impacts relevant to tropical cyclone genesis Int J Clim 19 607–617 Occurrence Handle10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199905)19:6<607::AID-JOC383>3.0.CO;2-M
JB Elsner T Jagger XF Niu (2000) ArticleTitleChanges in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century Geophys Res Lett 27 1743–1746 Occurrence Handle10.1029/2000GL011453
SB Goldenberg CW Landsea AM Mestas-Numez WM Gray (2001) ArticleTitleThe recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications Science 293 474–479 Occurrence Handle10.1126/science.1060040
WM Gray (1990) ArticleTitleStrong association between West African rainfall and U.S. landfall of intense hurricanes Science 249 1251–1256
WM Gray JD Sheaffer CW Landsea (1997) Climate trends associated with multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity HF Diaz RS Pulwarty (Eds) Hurricanes: climate and socioeconomic impacts Springer New York 15–53
D Hanley J Molinari D Keyser (2001) ArticleTitleA composite study of the interactions between tropical cyclones and upper-tropospheric troughs Mon Wea Rev 129 2570–2584 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2570:ACSOTI>2.0.CO;2
JS Hobgood (1986) ArticleTitleA possible mechanism for the diurnal oscillations of tropical cyclones J Atmos Sci 43 2901–2922 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0469(1986)043<2901:APMFTD>2.0.CO;2
XD Hong SW Change S Raman LK Shay R Hodur (2000) ArticleTitleThe interaction between hurricane Opal (1995) and a warm core ring in the Gulf of Mexico Mon Wea Rev 128 1347–1365 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1347:TIBHOA>2.0.CO;2
JT Houghton Y Ding DJ Griggs M Noguer PJ van der Linden X Dai K Maskell CA Johnson (Eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: The scientific basis Cambridge University Press Cambridge
SB Idso RC Balling RS Cerveny (1990) ArticleTitleCarbon dioxide and hurricanes: implications of Northern Hemispheric warming for Atlantic/Caribbean storms Meteorol Atmos Phys 42 259–263 Occurrence Handle10.1007/BF01314829
Jarvinen BR, Neumann CJ, Davis MAS (1984) A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886–1983: contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 22, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center
PD Jones M New MDE Parker S Martin IG Rigor (1999) ArticleTitleSurface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years Rev Geophys 37 173–199 Occurrence Handle10.1029/1999RG900002
J Kaplan M DeMaria (2003) ArticleTitleLarge-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin Wea Forecast 18 1093–1108 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1093:LCORIT>2.0.CO;2
TR Karl RW Knight DR Easterling RG Quayle (1995) ArticleTitleTrends in U.S. climate during the 20th century Consequences 1 3–12
TR Karl RW Knight DR Easterling RG Quayle (1996) ArticleTitleIndices of climate change for the United States Bull Amer Met Soc 77 279–292 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0279:IOCCFT>2.0.CO;2
TR Knutson RE Tuleye WX Shen I Ginis (2001) ArticleTitleImpact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling J Climate 14 2458–2468 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2458:IOCIWO>2.0.CO;2
JP Kossin (2002) ArticleTitleDaily hurricane variability inferred from GOES infrared imagery Mon Wea Rev 130 2260–2270 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2260:DHVIFG>2.0.CO;2
FA Lajoie IJ Butterworth (1984) ArticleTitleOscillation of high-value cirrus and heavy precipitation around Australian region tropical cyclones Mon Wea Rev 112 535–544 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1984)112<0535:OOHLCA>2.0.CO;2
CW Landsea (1993) ArticleTitleA climatology of intense (or major) Atlantic hurricanes Mon Wea Rev 121 1703–1713 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<1703:ACOIMA>2.0.CO;2
CW Landsea RA Pielke SuffixJr (1999) ArticleTitleAtlantic basin hurricanes: indices of climatic change Clim Change 42 89–129 Occurrence Handle10.1023/A:1005416332322
CW Landsea N Nicholls WM Gray LA Avila (1996) ArticleTitleDownward trends in the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during the past five decades Geophys Res Lett 23 1697–1700 Occurrence Handle10.1029/96GL01029
J Persing MT Montgomery RE Tuleya (2002) ArticleTitleEnvironmental interactions in the GFDL hurricane model for hurricane Opal Mon Wea Rev 130 298–317 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0298:EIITGH>2.0.CO;2
LK Shay RL Elsberry PG Black (1989) ArticleTitleVertical structure of the ocean current response to a hurricane J Phys Ocean 19 649–669 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0485(1989)019<0649:VSOTOC>2.0.CO;2
WX Shen RE Tuleya I Ginis (2000) ArticleTitleA sensitivity study of the thermodynamic environment on GFDL model hurricane intensity: Implications for global warming J Climate 13 109–121 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0109:ASSOTT>2.0.CO;2
E Smith (1999) ArticleTitleAtlantic and east coast hurricanes 1900–98: a frequency and intensity study for the twenty-first century Bull Amer Met Soc 80 2717–2720 Occurrence Handle10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2717:AAECHA>2.0.CO;2
M Sugi A Noda N Sato (2002) ArticleTitleInfluence of the global warming on tropical cyclone climatology: An experiment with the JMA global model J Meteor Soc Jap 80 249–272 Occurrence Handle10.2151/jmsj.80.249
Wallace JM, Christy JR, Gaffen DJ, Grody NC, Hansen JE, Parker DE, Peterson TC, Santer BD, Spencer RW, Trenberth KE, Wentz FJ (2000) Reconciling observations of global temperature change. National Academy Press
RM Wilson (1999) ArticleTitleStatistical aspects of major (intense) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin during the past 49 hurricane seasons (1950–1998): implications for the current season Geophys Res Lett 26 2957–2960 Occurrence Handle10.1029/1999GL004904
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Balling, R., Cerveny, R. Analysis of tropical cyclone intensification trends and variability in the North Atlantic Basin over the period 1970–2003. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 93, 45–51 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0196-5
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-006-0196-5