International Journal of Biometeorology

, Volume 47, Issue 1, pp 6–12

Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part I. model construction and validation

  • Suraje Dessai
Original Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00484-002-0143-1

Cite this article as:
Dessai, S. Int J Biometeorol (2002) 47: 6. doi:10.1007/s00484-002-0143-1


Global climate change will have direct impacts on human health, including increased mortality due to heat stress and heat waves. An empirical-statistical model for heat stress is constructed for the city of Lisbon using the June–August months of the observational period 1980–1998. The model uses the regression of an aggregate dose-response relationship between maximum temperature and excess heat-related deaths, based on the difference between observed and expected deaths. The model is validated by correlation and residual analysis. The mean annual heat-related mortality for the period 1980–1998 was between 5.4 and 6 deaths per 100,000 depending on the method used to calculate expected deaths. Both validation methods show that the model has a moderate to high accuracy in modelling heat-related deaths compared to the observed record.

Heat-related deaths Climate Mortality Heat stress Heat waves Lisbon

Copyright information

© ISB 2002

Authors and Affiliations

  • Suraje Dessai
    • 1
  1. 1.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK