Bulletin of Volcanology

, Volume 70, Issue 5, pp 623–632

BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting

Research Article

DOI: 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y

Cite this article as:
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L. & Selva, J. Bull Volcanol (2008) 70: 623. doi:10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting; therefore, it can be useful in many practical aspects such as land use planning and volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application for the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.

Keywords

Eruption forecasting Long- and short-term volcanic hazard Bayesian inference Event tree Fuzzy sets Software MESIMEX 

Supplementary material

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e VulcanologiaBolognaItaly

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