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Plant colonization and survival along a hydrological gradient: demography and niche dynamics

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Abstract

Predicting the effect of a changing environment, e.g., caused by climate change, on realized niche dynamics, and consequently, biodiversity is a challenging scientific question that needs to be addressed. One promising approach is to use estimated demographic parameters for predicting plant abundance and occurrence probabilities. Using longitudinal pinpoint cover data sampled along a hydrological gradient in the Marais poitevin grasslands, France, the effect of the gradient on the demographic probabilities of colonization and survival was estimated. The estimated probabilities and calculated elasticities of survival and colonization covaried with the observed cover of the different species along the hydrological gradient. For example, the flooding tolerant grass A. stolonifera showed a positive response in both colonization and survival to flooding, and the hydrological gradient is clearly the most likely explanation for the occurrence pattern observed for A. stolonifera. The results suggest that knowledge on the processes of colonization and survival of the individual species along the hydrological gradient is sufficient for at least a qualitative understanding of species occurrences along the gradient. The results support the hypothesis that colonization has a predominant role for determining the ecological success along the hydrological gradient compared to survival. Importantly, the study suggests that it may be possible to predict the realized niche of different species from demographic studies. This is encouraging for the important endeavor of predicting realized niche dynamics.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Marie-Lise Benot for help in the field and Olivier Jambon and Guillaume Bouger for water table monitoring. We are grateful to the Mairie des Magnils Reigniers for granting permission to work within its common and to the Parc Naturel Régional du Marais poitevin and the Etablissement Public du Marais poitevin for their support in maintaining the experimental setting where this survey was developed.

Author contribution statement

CD, AM and AB conceived and designed the investigations. AM measured plant abundance. CD modeled the data. CD and AB wrote the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Silkeborg, Denmark

    Christian Damgaard

  2. UMR 6553 ECOBIO: Ecosystems, Biodiversity, Evolution, CNRS-University of Rennes 1, OSUR, Rennes, France

    Amandine Merlin & Anne Bonis

  3. Centre de recherche de la Tour du Valat, Arles, France

    Amandine Merlin

Authors
  1. Christian Damgaard
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  2. Amandine Merlin
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  3. Anne Bonis
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Christian Damgaard.

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Communicated by Katherine L. Gross.

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Damgaard, C., Merlin, A. & Bonis, A. Plant colonization and survival along a hydrological gradient: demography and niche dynamics. Oecologia 183, 201–210 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-016-3760-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-016-3760-9

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