Abstract
The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year−1 (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the landowners where the study populations are located; their continued support is much appreciated. The study plots at Newmarket were recorded by Lynne Farrell and Gigi Crompton from 1977 to 1994 and the Sandwich population plots were created and recorded in 1987 by Nick Stewart who continued to record with P. Carey until 2003. Many volunteers have assisted with the recording of the plots over the years. The authors would also like to thank two reviewers who provided useful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Recording of the plots was supported by various Natural Environment Research Council grants from 1991 to 2007 (P. C.). This work was also supported by the Flanders Research Foundation (project 11G1715N; S. M.), the European Research Council (starting grant 260601—MYCASOR; H. J.) and the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (project 841.11.007; E. J.). The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Author contribution statement
P. C., H. J. and E. J. formulated the idea; P. C. conducted the fieldwork; S. M. and E. J. constructed the models and analysed the data; and S. M., P. C., H. J. and E. J. wrote the manuscript.
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Communicated by Jennifer A. Lau.
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442_2016_3592_MOESM3_ESM.xlsx
Online resource 3 Table with statistical details of the weather-dependent vital rate functions, showing all 256 models from the weighted averaging procedure with corresponding Akaike information criterion scores and weights
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Online resource 4 Analysis that reveals which vital rates contributed most to the variation in population growth rates of populations Newmarket and Sandwich. Including a description of our method, results and a graph showing the effect of integrating vital rate functions of one population into the integral projection model of the other population, on the projected population growth rate
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Online resource 5 Figure showing the observed population structure of Himantoglossum hircinum in populations Newmarket and Sandwich between 1991 and 2006
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Online resource 6 Relationship between population growth and mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation in populations Newmarket and Sandwich
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Online resource 7 Table and figure showing the effect of a combination of climate variables (principal component 1; PC1) on the projected population growth rate
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Online resource 8 Figure showing projected future changes in temperature and precipitation in populations Newmarket and Sandwich under a low, medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenario
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Online resource 9 Table with all standardized climate conditions in populations Newmarket and Sandwich between 1991 and 2006
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Online resource 10 Figure showing seasonal temperature and precipitation between 1991 and 2006 in populations Newmarket and Sandwich
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van der Meer, S., Jacquemyn, H., Carey, P.D. et al. Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics. Oecologia 181, 435–448 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-016-3592-7
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-016-3592-7