Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology

, Volume 137, Issue 9, pp 1301–1308

Nomogram predicting clinical outcomes in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy

  • Bhumsuk Keam
  • Seock-Ah Im
  • Sohee Park
  • Byung-Ho Nam
  • Sae-Won Han
  • Do-Youn Oh
  • Jee Hyun Kim
  • Se-Hoon Lee
  • Wonshik Han
  • Dong-Wan Kim
  • Tae-You Kim
  • In Ae Park
  • Dong-Young Noh
  • Dae Seog Heo
  • Yung-Jue Bang
Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s00432-011-0991-3

Cite this article as:
Keam, B., Im, SA., Park, S. et al. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol (2011) 137: 1301. doi:10.1007/s00432-011-0991-3

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study was to combine clinical pathologic variables that are associated with pathologic completer response (pCR) and relapse-free survival (RFS) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy into prediction nomograms.

Methods

A total of 370 stage II or III breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant docetaxel/doxorubicin chemotherapy were enrolled in this study. We developed the nomograms using logistic regression model for pCR and Cox proportional hazard regression model for RFS.

Results

The nomogram for pCR based on initial tumor size, estrogen receptor (ER), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, and Ki67 had good discrimination performance (AUROC = 0.830). Multivariate Cox model identified age less than 35, initial clinical stage, pathologic stage, ER, Ki67 as prognostic factors, and the nomogram for RFS was developed based on these covariates. The concordance index for the second nomogram was 0.781, and calibration was also good.

Conclusions

We developed nomograms based on clinical and pathologic characteristics to predict the probability of pCR and RFS for patients receiving neoadjuvant docetaxel/doxorubicin chemotherapy.

Keywords

NomogramBreast cancerNeoadjuvant chemotherapyPrediction

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2011

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bhumsuk Keam
    • 1
    • 2
  • Seock-Ah Im
    • 1
    • 2
  • Sohee Park
    • 3
  • Byung-Ho Nam
    • 3
  • Sae-Won Han
    • 1
    • 2
  • Do-Youn Oh
    • 1
    • 2
  • Jee Hyun Kim
    • 1
    • 2
    • 4
  • Se-Hoon Lee
    • 1
    • 2
  • Wonshik Han
    • 2
    • 5
  • Dong-Wan Kim
    • 1
    • 2
  • Tae-You Kim
    • 1
    • 2
  • In Ae Park
    • 2
    • 6
  • Dong-Young Noh
    • 2
    • 5
  • Dae Seog Heo
    • 1
    • 2
  • Yung-Jue Bang
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of MedicineChongno-GuKorea
  2. 2.Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of MedicineSeoulKorea
  3. 3.Cancer Biostatistics BranchResearch Institute, National Cancer CenterGoyang-siKorea
  4. 4.Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University Bundang HospitalSeongnam-siKorea
  5. 5.Department of SurgerySeoul National University College of MedicineSeoulKorea
  6. 6.Department of PathologySeoul National University College of MedicineSeoulKorea