Journal of Cancer Research and Clinical Oncology

, Volume 137, Issue 9, pp 1301–1308

Nomogram predicting clinical outcomes in breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Authors

  • Bhumsuk Keam
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Sohee Park
    • Cancer Biostatistics BranchResearch Institute, National Cancer Center
  • Byung-Ho Nam
    • Cancer Biostatistics BranchResearch Institute, National Cancer Center
  • Sae-Won Han
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Do-Youn Oh
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Jee Hyun Kim
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University Bundang Hospital
  • Se-Hoon Lee
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Wonshik Han
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Department of SurgerySeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Dong-Wan Kim
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Tae-You Kim
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
  • In Ae Park
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Department of PathologySeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Dong-Young Noh
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Department of SurgerySeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Dae Seog Heo
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
  • Yung-Jue Bang
    • Department of Internal MedicineSeoul National University College of Medicine
    • Cancer Research InstituteSeoul National University College of Medicine
Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s00432-011-0991-3

Cite this article as:
Keam, B., Im, S., Park, S. et al. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol (2011) 137: 1301. doi:10.1007/s00432-011-0991-3

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study was to combine clinical pathologic variables that are associated with pathologic completer response (pCR) and relapse-free survival (RFS) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy into prediction nomograms.

Methods

A total of 370 stage II or III breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant docetaxel/doxorubicin chemotherapy were enrolled in this study. We developed the nomograms using logistic regression model for pCR and Cox proportional hazard regression model for RFS.

Results

The nomogram for pCR based on initial tumor size, estrogen receptor (ER), human epidermal growth factor receptor 2, and Ki67 had good discrimination performance (AUROC = 0.830). Multivariate Cox model identified age less than 35, initial clinical stage, pathologic stage, ER, Ki67 as prognostic factors, and the nomogram for RFS was developed based on these covariates. The concordance index for the second nomogram was 0.781, and calibration was also good.

Conclusions

We developed nomograms based on clinical and pathologic characteristics to predict the probability of pCR and RFS for patients receiving neoadjuvant docetaxel/doxorubicin chemotherapy.

Keywords

NomogramBreast cancerNeoadjuvant chemotherapyPrediction

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2011