Multimodel inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese Abomb survivors mortality data (1950–2000)
 Linda Walsh,
 Jan Christian Kaiser
 … show all 2 hide
Rent the article at a discount
Rent now* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.
Get AccessAbstract
Some relatively new issues that augment the usual practice of ignoring model uncertainty, when making inference about parameters of a specific model, are brought to the attention of the radiation protection community here. Nine recently published leukaemia risk models, developed with the Japanese Abomb epidemiological mortality data, have been included in a modelaveraging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model or statistical test. The models have been centred here at various adult and young ages at exposure, for some short times since exposure, in order to obtain specially computed childhood Excess Relative Risks (ERR) with uncertainties that account for correlations in the fitted parameters associated with the ERR dose–response. The modelaveraged ERR at 1 Sv was not found to be statistically significant for attained ages of 7 and 12 years but was statistically significant for attained ages of 17, 22 and 55 years. Consequently, such risks when applied to other situations, such as children in the vicinity of nuclear installations or in estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence attributable to background radiation (i.e. low doses for young ages and short times since exposure), are only of very limited value, with uncertainty ranges that include zero risk. For example, assuming a total radiation dose to a 5yearold child of 10 mSv and applying the modelaveraged risk at 10 mSv for a 7yearold exposed at 2 years of age would result in an ERR = 0.33, 95% CI: −0.51 to 1.22. One model (United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer, United Nations, New York, 2006) weighted modelaveraged risks of leukaemia most strongly by half of the total unity weighting and is recommended for application in future leukaemia risk assessments that continue to ignore model uncertainty. However, on the basis of the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses.
 Akaike H (1973) Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov BN, Caski F (eds) Proceedings of the second international symposium on information theory. Budapest, Hungary, Akademiai Kiado, pp 267–281
 Akaike, H (1974) A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Trans Autom Control 19: pp. 716723 CrossRef
 Burnham, KP, Anderson, DR (1998) Model selection and inference: a practical informationtheoretic approach. Springer, New York
 Burnham, KP, Anderson, DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference. Springer, New York
 Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2004) Multimodel inference. Understanding AIC and BIC in model selection. Sociol Meth Res 33(2): 261–304, see also Workshop on Model Selection, Amsterdam http://www2.fmg.uva.nl/modelselection/. Accessed March 2010
 Cardis, E, Vrijheid, M, Blettner, M, Gilbert, E, Hakama, M, Hill, C, Howe, G, Kaldor, J, Muirhead, CR, SchubauerBerigan, M, Yoshimura, T, Bermann, F, Cowper, G, Fix, J, Hacker, C, Heinmiller, B, Marshall, M, ThierryChef, I, Utterback, D, Ahn, YO, Amoros, E, Ashmore, P, Auvinen, A, Bae, JM, Bernar Solano, J, Biau, A, Combalot, E, Deboodt, P, Diez Sacristan, A, Eklof, M, Engels, H, Engholm, G, Gulis, G, Habib, R, Holan, K, Hyvonen, H, Kerekes, A, Kurtinaitis, J, Malker, H, Martuzzi, M, Mastauskas, A, Monnet, A, Moser, M, Pearce, MS, Richardson, DB, RodriguezArtalejo, F, Rogel, A, Tardy, H, TelleLamberton, M, Turai, I, Usel, M, Veress, K (2005) Risk of cancer after low doses of ionising radiation: retrospective cohort study in 15 countries. BMJ 331: pp. 7782 CrossRef
 Chatfield, C (1995) Model uncertainty, data mining and statistical inference (with discussion). J R Stat Soc Ser A 158: pp. 419466 CrossRef
 Claeskens, G, Hjort, NL (2008) Model selection and model averaging. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
 Daniels RD, SchubauerBerigan MK (2010) A metaanalysis of leukaemia risk from protracted exposures to lowdose gamma radiation. Accepted for publication in OEM
 Harrell FE Jr (2001) Regression modeling strategies: with applications to linear models, logistic regression and survival analysis. Springer Series in Statistics
 Hoeting, JA, Madigan, D, Raftery, AE, Volinsky, CT (1999) Bayesian model averaging: a tutorial. Stat Sci 14: pp. 382417 CrossRef
 Kaatsch, P, Spix, C, SchulzeRath, R, Schmiedel, S, Blettner, M (2008) Leukaemia in young children living in the vicinity of German nuclear power plants. Int J Cancer 122: pp. 721726 CrossRef
 Laurier, D, Jacob, S, Bernier, MO, Leuraud, K, Metz, C, Samson, E, Laloi, P (2008) Epidemiological studies of leukaemia in children and young adults around nuclear facilities: A critical review. Radiat Prot Dosim 132: pp. 182190 CrossRef
 Little MP, Hoel DG, Molitor J Boice JD Jr, Wakeford R, Muirhead CR (2008) New models for evaluation of radiationinduced lifetime cancer risk and its uncertainty employed in the UNSCEAR 2006 report. Radiat Res 169:660–676
 Little, MP, Wakeford, R, Kendall, GM (2009) Updated estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain that may be caused by natural background ionizing radiation. J Radiol Prot 29: pp. 467482 CrossRef
 Pierce, DA, Stram, DO, Vaeth, M (1990) Allowing for random errors in radiation dose estimates for the atomic bomb survivor data. Radiat Res 123: pp. 275284 CrossRef
 Pierce, DA, Vaeth, M, Cologne, J (2008) Allowance for random dose estimation errors in atomic bomb survivor studies: a revision. Radiat Res 170: pp. 118126 CrossRef
 Posada, D, Buckley, TR (2004) Model selection and model averaging in phylogenetics: advantages of Akaike information criterion and baysian approaches over likelihood ration tests. Syst Biol 53: pp. 793808 CrossRef
 Preston, DL, Lubin, JH, Pierce, DA (1993) Epicure user`s guide. HiroSoft International Corp, Seattle
 Preston DL, Shimizu Y, Pierce DA, Suyama A, Mabuchi K (2003) Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 13: solid cancer and noncancer disease mortality: 1950–1997. Radiat Res 160: 381–407
 Preston, DL, Pierce, DA, Shimizu, Y, Cullings, HM, Fujita, S, Funamoto, S, Kodama, K (2004) Effects of recent changes in atomic bomb survivors dosimetry on cancer mortality risk estimates. Radiat Res 162: pp. 377389 CrossRef
 Preston, DL, Ron, E, Tokuoka, S, Funamoto, S, Nishi, N, Soda, M, Mabuchi, K, Kodama, K (2007) Solid cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors: 1958–1998. Radiat Res 168: pp. 164 CrossRef
 Richardson, D, Sugiyama, H, Nishi, N, Sakata, R, Shimizu, Y, Grant, EJ, Soda, M, Hsu, WL, Suyama, A, Kodamae, K, Kasagi, F (2009) Ionizing radiation and leukemia mortality among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, 1950–2000. Radiat Res 172: pp. 368382 CrossRef
 Rühm, W, Walsh, L (2007) Current risk estimates based on the Abomb survivors data inconsistent with ICRP recommendations on the neutron weighting factor. Radiat Prot Dosim 126: pp. 423431 CrossRef
 Schneider, U, Walsh, L (2009) Cancer risk above 1 Gy and the impact for space radiation protection. Adv Space Res 44: pp. 202209 CrossRef
 United Nations Effects of ionizing radiation (2006) United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation UNSCEAR 2006 report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer. United Nations, New York (2008)
 United States National Research Council, Committee to Assess Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation (2006) Health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation: BEIR VII –phase 2. United States national academy of sciences. National Academy Press, Washington
 Wakeford, R, Kendall, GM, Little, MP (2009) The proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence in Great Britain that may be caused by natural background ionizing radiation. Leukemia 23: pp. 770776 CrossRef
 Walsh, L (2007) A short review of model selection techniques for radiation epidemiology. Radiat Environ Biophys 46: pp. 205213 CrossRef
 Walsh L (2010) Radiation protection in occupational and environmental settings. Accepted for publication in OEM
 Walsh, L, Jacob, P, Kaiser, JC (2009) Radiation risk modeling of thyroid cancer with special emphasis on the chernobyl epidemiological data. Radiat Res 172: pp. 509518 CrossRef
 Young, R, Kerr, GD eds. (2005) DS02: Reassessment of the atomic bomb radiation dosimetry for Hiroshima and Nagasaki, dosimetry system 2002, DS02. Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima
 Zhang, Z, Townsend, JP (2009) Maximumlikelihood model averaging to profile clustering of site types across discrete linear sequences. PLOS Comp Biol 5: pp. e1000421 CrossRef
 Title
 Multimodel inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese Abomb survivors mortality data (1950–2000)
 Journal

Radiation and Environmental Biophysics
Volume 50, Issue 1 , pp 2135
 Cover Date
 20110301
 DOI
 10.1007/s0041101003376
 Print ISSN
 0301634X
 Online ISSN
 14322099
 Publisher
 SpringerVerlag
 Additional Links
 Topics
 Industry Sectors
 Authors

 Linda Walsh ^{(1)}
 Jan Christian Kaiser ^{(2)}
 Author Affiliations

 1. Department “Radiation Protection and Health”, Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, 85764, Oberschleissheim, Germany
 2. Institute of Radiation Protection, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, 85764, Oberschleissheim, Germany