, Volume 43, Issue 4, pp 233-245
Date: 25 Nov 2004

Flexible dose-response models for Japanese atomic bomb survivor data: Bayesian estimation and prediction of cancer risk

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Abstract

Generalised absolute risk models were fitted to the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor cancer incidence data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, taking account of random errors in the DS86 dose estimates. The resulting uncertainty distributions in the relative risk model parameters were used to derive uncertainties in population cancer risks for a current UK population. Because of evidence for irregularities in the low-dose dose response, flexible dose-response models were used, consisting of a linear-quadratic-exponential model, used to model the high-dose part of the dose response, together with piecewise-linear adjustments for the two lowest dose groups. Following an assumed administered dose of 0.001 Sv, lifetime leukaemia radiation-induced incidence risks were estimated to be 1.11×10−2 Sv−1 (95% Bayesian CI −0.61, 2.38) using this model. Following an assumed administered dose of 0.001 Sv, lifetime solid cancer radiation-induced incidence risks were calculated to be 7.28×10−2 Sv−1 (95% Bayesian CI −10.63, 22.10) using this model. Overall, cancer incidence risks predicted by Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods are similar to those derived by classical likelihood-based methods and which form the basis of established estimates of radiation-induced cancer risk.