Abstract
The influence of changes in winds over the Amundsen Sea has been shown to be a potentially key mechanism in explaining rapid loss of ice from major glaciers in West Antarctica, which is having a significant impact on global sea level. Here, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model data are used to assess twenty-first century projections in westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea (U AS ). The importance of model uncertainty and internal climate variability in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario projections are quantified and potential sources of model uncertainty are considered. For the decade 2090–2099 the CMIP5 models show an ensemble mean twenty-first century response in annual mean U AS of 0.3 and 0.7 m s−1 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. However, as a consequence of large internal climate variability over the Amundsen Sea, it takes until around 2030 (2065) for the RCP8.5 response to exceed one (two) standard deviation(s) of decadal internal variability. In all scenarios and seasons the model uncertainty is large. However the present-day climatological zonal wind bias over the whole South Pacific, which is important for tropical teleconnections, is strongly related to inter-model differences in projected change in U AS (more skilful models show larger U AS increases). This relationship is significant in winter (r = −0.56) and spring (r = −0.65), when the influence of the tropics on the Amundsen Sea region is known to be important. Horizontal grid spacing and present day sea ice extent are not significant sources of inter-model spread.
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Acknowledgments
This study is part of the British Antarctic Survey Polar Science for Planet Earth Programme. It was funded by The UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant reference number NE/H02333X/1). Two anonymous reviewers are thanked for their useful and constructive comments. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are thanked for providing the ERA-Interim dataset.
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Bracegirdle, T.J., Turner, J., Hosking, J.S. et al. Sources of uncertainty in projections of twenty-first century westerly wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, in CMIP5 climate models. Clim Dyn 43, 2093–2104 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2032-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2032-1