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Tropical cyclones in enhanced resolution CMIP5 experiments

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Abstract

This study investigates the possible effects of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity. The study is conducted using the coupled ocean–atmosphere global climate model EC-Earth configured at a relatively high resolution (T159 with 62 vertical levels), which is integrated following the CMIP5 protocol. By considering the late twentieth century (1979–2009) in the historical simulation and the twenty-first century end (2070–2100) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, significant future annual mean frequency decreases are found globally and in both hemispheres, accompanied by significant mean lifetime decreases and significant intensity increases, the latter being found through several different measures (but with caveats). In addition, the relatively novel aspect of simulating TCs of the past (1900–1930) is studied to further assess the robustness of the climate change results. These results suggest that TCs in the early twentieth century were more frequent in the southern hemisphere and dissipated more energy in the southern hemisphere and the South Indian Ocean. Although some model biases are present and the coarse model resolution prevents intense TCs in being simulated, reasonable TC simulation skill for other metrics (e.g., TC genesis, frequency of occurrence) is found when validated against present day observations. Thus the model displays an acceptable ability to connect TC climatology with the larger scale circulation.

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Notes

  1. To ensure this criterion does not affect the climate change results by a poleward expansion of TC genesis, sensitivity tests were conducted by removing this criterion. The results basically only differ in the extra-tropical activity then captured without this latitude restriction.

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Acknowledgments

The EC-Earth CMIP5 simulations in this study were carried out at the Danish Meteorological Institute and received financial support from the European Commission’s 7th Framework Programme, under grant agreement 226520, COMBINE project. Comments by three anonymous reviewers helped greatly improving the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Nicholas Mossor Rathmann & Eigil Kaas

  2. Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Shuting Yang

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  1. Nicholas Mossor Rathmann
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  2. Shuting Yang
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  3. Eigil Kaas
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Correspondence to Eigil Kaas.

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Rathmann, N.M., Yang, S. & Kaas, E. Tropical cyclones in enhanced resolution CMIP5 experiments. Clim Dyn 42, 665–681 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1818-5

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